Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9af27e8b17490719e588e098512f89d58eb5702f4781ea682f2e2ac81688581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…434cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,559$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…6481backed Yes | 4c | 4,550$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…f8a7backed Yes | 5c | 4,366$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…5bd9backed Yes | 3c | 3,201$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 21c | 3,095$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.94 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 1c | 3,029$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 1c | 2,875$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,859$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473a…c40ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,448$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed Yes | 4c | 2,390$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1255…fa6fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,302$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,133$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 14c | 2,100$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 4c | 1,875$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 1c | 1,356$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 1,291$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…2e97backed Yes | 1c | 1,183$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 5c | 839.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 6c | 793.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 751.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Yes | 3c | 750.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…19c0backed Yes | 4c | 716.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 3c | 660.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 5c | 659.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cd…2e45backed Yes | 2c | 634.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 4c | 602.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…f11ebacked Yes | 4c | 479.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…cf3cbacked Yes | 4c | 460.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…29bcbacked Yes | 23c | 435.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…6db5backed Yes | 5c | 435$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Yes | 12c | 226.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…82d1backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…7a88backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 80c | 161.27$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…0307backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…6e42backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…e3edbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…5442backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…b5b5backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6885…056fbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c92…edc7backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x911e…c0fdbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21?this page
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 19?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 20?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.