Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bc2087e714147971fbd5ea97b47909e0ceea7756515ba88ff51ce7b23245d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 1c | 3,676$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Yes | 2c | 3,499$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 1c | 3,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 2,933$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 4c | 2,751$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 2,710$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…d477backed Yes | 2c | 2,653$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…1412backed Yes | 4c | 1,980$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 3c | 1,866$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0648…ebc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,810$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,028$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…079bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025a…b035backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c65…0db0backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…518cbacked Yes | 1c | 989.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Yes | 2c | 721.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…cacabacked Yes | 4c | 270.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 19?this page
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 20?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.