Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4048fed324ac27f378ce44da1b12f0d338c8340ef82962989f38eea05409baab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,393,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,791,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,393,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,586 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked No | 11c | 769,463$83,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83,102.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 76c | 107,731$81,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,182.36 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 72c | 59,908$43,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,504.43 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49cc…7e8dbacked No | 8c | 56,213$4,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,565.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 78c | 55,392$43,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,365.12 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 16c | 45,352$7,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,466.95 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b51…f612backed No | 2c | 31,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…a103backed Yes | 72c | 23,218$16,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,557.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 79c | 22,881$18,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,782.53 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a19…8179backed No | 23c | 21,635$5,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,011.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 30c | 21,500$6,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,362.23 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521a…d12fbacked Yes | 74c | 20,442$15,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,360.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…a144backed Yes | 74c | 20,000$14,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,299.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked No | 0c | 19,990$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…ded1backed No | 29c | 18,854$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked No | 6c | 17,016$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 74c | 16,315$12,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,181.46 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 22c | 15,814$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked No | 11c | 15,597$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 21c | 15,438$3,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,229.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee29…8c8bbacked Yes | 70c | 15,392$10,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,601.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 20c | 15,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed No | 15c | 14,769$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5361…593bbacked No | 6c | 14,641$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Yes | 77c | 14,290$11,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,234.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed No | 20c | 13,248$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 13,200$10,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.9 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…e33fbacked No | 35c | 13,000$4,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,521.42 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…c57abacked No | 26c | 12,925$3,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,401.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 22c | 12,473$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.29 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 73c | 12,287$9,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,260.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed No | 29c | 12,000$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,478 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…8d0dbacked Yes | 70c | 11,682$8,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,530.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…a693backed Yes | 72c | 11,637$8,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,234.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 24c | 11,244$2,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,682.41 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 73c | 11,088$8,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,038.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…733abacked No | 22c | 10,678$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,369.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked Yes | 80c | 10,580$8,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.08 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -10.0wins | -0.40per pick | 64cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…74c8backed Yes | 71c | 10,540$7,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…c2c7backed Yes | 78c | 10,391$8,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…f064backed No | 22c | 10,272$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +846.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfa…07c3backed No | 16c | 10,200$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 23c | 10,198$2,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.94 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4044…8de5backed Yes | 71c | 10,081$7,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,884.97 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked No | 6c | 10,005$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +127%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +111%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 30c | 10,000$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,979.1 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 71c | 10,000$7,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,929.83 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 7c | 9,738$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.51 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…e7abbacked No | 8c | 9,723$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…9245backed No | 22c | 9,285$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…24b1backed No | 27c | 8,919$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8681…59ebbacked Yes | 68c | 8,895$6,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,854.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f06…753bbacked No | 12c | 8,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 76c | 8,295$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed No | 17c | 8,260$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed No | 28c | 8,215$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…c01abacked No | 20c | 8,130$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ec…2d0ebacked No | 33c | 8,000$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f40…66aabacked No | 6c | 7,979$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…33c5backed No | 29c | 7,669$2,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,191.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…fe4dbacked No | 32c | 7,611$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…9728backed No | 19c | 7,110$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 22c | 7,100$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 2c | 6,913$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.26 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 15c | 6,671$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.61 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 9c | 6,415$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.31 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 73c | 6,329$4,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.14 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…aec1backed No | 35c | 6,296$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…da4fbacked No | 27c | 6,204$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…7f05backed No | 33c | 6,098$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ea64backed No | 26c | 6,087$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked No | 23c | 5,988$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 9c | 5,810$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed No | 31c | 5,754$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.09 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 21c | 5,743$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.27 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 24c | 5,516$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 64c | 5,500$3,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…70c0backed No | 0c | 5,476$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 70c | 5,226$3,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…5ec1backed No | 12c | 5,198$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 4c | 5,153$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.54 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes | 73c | 5,136$3,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 25c | 5,126$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.68 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…b986backed No | 32c | 5,005$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…2d52backed No | 32c | 5,004$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…119abacked No | 16c | 4,995$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 4,983$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.15 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 66c | 4,946$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.18 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 72c | 4,943$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.22 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73fb…9754backed No | 22c | 4,872$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…81f7backed Yes | 68c | 4,779$3,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed No | 36c | 4,607$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes | 70c | 4,581$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c50…1620backed No | 16c | 4,566$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 34c | 4,558$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 4,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…fcc3backed No | 23c | 4,491$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 21c | 4,400$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.23 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?this page
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 19?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 20?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.