TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,393,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,791,249

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,393,808 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,586 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a09…af0fbacked No11c769,463$83,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,102.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes76c107,731$81,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,182.364850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes72c59,908$43,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,504.4319236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x49cc…7e8dbacked No8c56,213$4,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,565.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes78c55,392$43,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,365.122070%14 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No16c45,352$7,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,466.9533313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b51…f612backed No2c31,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071e…a103backed Yes72c23,218$16,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,557.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes79c22,881$18,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,782.534443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a19…8179backed No23c21,635$5,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,011.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed No30c21,500$6,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,362.238231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x521a…d12fbacked Yes74c20,442$15,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,360.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb48e…a144backed Yes74c20,000$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,299.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0baf…409cbacked No0c19,990$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed No29c18,854$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked No6c17,016$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes74c16,315$12,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,181.4623639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked No22c15,814$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,550560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked No11c15,597$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No21c15,438$3,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee29…8c8bbacked Yes70c15,392$10,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,601.13785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+46.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No20c15,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00021935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed No15c14,769$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5361…593bbacked No6c14,641$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Yes77c14,290$11,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,234.355100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03fc…a8e6backed No20c13,248$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes76c13,200$10,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,104.969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e65…e33fbacked No35c13,000$4,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,521.421553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb4…c57abacked No26c12,925$3,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,401.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No22c12,473$2,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,734.2920446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes73c12,287$9,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,260.022157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed No29c12,000$3,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,478812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-77.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeceb…8d0dbacked Yes70c11,682$8,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,530.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59f1…a693backed Yes72c11,637$8,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,234.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No24c11,244$2,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,682.416145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes73c11,088$8,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked No22c10,678$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked Yes80c10,580$8,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.082524%6 W · 19 L-10.0wins-0.40per pick64cpaid-66.7%equal weight28-0.20 edge/pick
0x9dfe…74c8backed Yes71c10,540$7,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,056.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+80.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Yes78c10,391$8,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,244.233100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+118.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c39…f064backed No22c10,272$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,285.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+846.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfa…07c3backed No16c10,200$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-68.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No23c10,198$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.9421022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4044…8de5backed Yes71c10,081$7,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,884.971861.1%11 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick35cpaid+62.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked No6c10,005$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+127%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f02…a51cbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+111%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No30c10,000$2,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.14332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes71c10,000$7,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.832871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No7c9,738$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.5110127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x739c…e7abbacked No8c9,723$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5e…9245backed No22c9,285$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…24b1backed No27c8,919$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,374.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8681…59ebbacked Yes68c8,895$6,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,854.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f06…753bbacked No12c8,351$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes76c8,295$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.021127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed No17c8,260$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No28c8,215$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.39520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b30…c01abacked No20c8,130$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ec…2d0ebacked No33c8,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f40…66aabacked No6c7,979$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf839…33c5backed No29c7,669$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.22825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc441…fe4dbacked No32c7,611$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,460.04425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf419…9728backed No19c7,110$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.8940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked No22c7,100$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5521747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No2c6,913$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.262119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No15c6,671$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.6135519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No9c6,415$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.315265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes73c6,329$4,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.148536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…aec1backed No35c6,296$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked No27c6,204$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a1f…7f05backed No33c6,098$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf396…ea64backed No26c6,087$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No1c6,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked No23c5,988$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad8e…776ebacked No9c5,810$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed No31c5,754$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.091526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid+13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No21c5,743$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.2722347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc484…4cd5backed No24c5,516$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.1550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes64c5,500$3,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x860e…70c0backed No0c5,476$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb169…b67abacked Yes70c5,226$3,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.52839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85be…5ec1backed No12c5,198$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No4c5,153$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.548150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes73c5,136$3,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.79520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-72.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No25c5,126$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.6814528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x207b…b986backed No32c5,005$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f60…2d52backed No32c5,004$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab0f…119abacked No16c4,995$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No16c4,983$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.1544111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes66c4,946$3,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.183043.3%13 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+91.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes72c4,943$3,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.228042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73fb…9754backed No22c4,872$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e3…81f7backed Yes68c4,779$3,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed No36c4,607$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.982437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes70c4,581$3,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.14875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c50…1620backed No16c4,566$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked No34c4,558$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5602910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c4,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3812910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b6…fcc3backed No23c4,491$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No21c4,400$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.233912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.