TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x75bb…0ac5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST2437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$5,452Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$5,452.27
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$534Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$534.41
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+25.5%+$60.73
Trump out as President in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,483Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,483.22
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,652Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,651.98
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+194.1%+$1,320
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.19
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$524Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$523.92
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$564Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$563.72
Funding lapse without government shutdown? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$236.57
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+159.4%+$255.63
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$863Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$863.44
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$542Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$143.99
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$115
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+65.9%+$278
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$115
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$145
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.66
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+31.6%+$112.33
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,902Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$1,901.66
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$72.65
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$106.1
Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000.17
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$3,068Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+300%+$9,204
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.41
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,091Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+174.1%+$1,899.55
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$2,353
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$541.01
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,611Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,610.97
Iran strike on Israel before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$113.73
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,568Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$2,568.46
U.S. military action against Iran before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$316.97
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,042Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT+108.2%+$1,127.47
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$42.2
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$456.37
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$7,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$7,259.03
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$8,957Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+67.5%+$6,047.37
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$134.2
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$350.83
Iran military response by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,801Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2024, EDT+25.2%+$453.77
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+88.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$195.98
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.05
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+515.7%+$864.34
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$3,152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,151.59
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$268.6
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,324Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$1,712.62
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+40.8%+$14.09
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$44.46
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$576.44
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+198.5%+$52.37
Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+213.5%+$204.27
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+193.5%+$798.02
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$225
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$644Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$214.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$5,516Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+30.5%+$1,682.75
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$3,466Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,465.92
Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+66.6%+$203.13
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+40.8%+$145
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,059.91
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,106Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+170.2%+$3,583.39
All 10 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$659Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$659.18
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,194Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,193.52
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+108.6%+$2,340.08
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,187Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$859.29
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$115
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+56.9%+$274.36
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.14
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.22
Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$20.25
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2024, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+159.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+279.6%+$132.47
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15,849Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+39.3%+$6,232.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2024 September hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$779Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$778.84
2024 August hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$501.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympicsbacked Biden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2024, EDT+257.1%+$396
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+58.7%+$370
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,399Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+53%+$741.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+28.2%+$110
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$373.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$350.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$832Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$831.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.