Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x930c8efb17e7035175d364e177515cba55441f208f07dd627c7e7956fe6b418c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $334,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $343,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $334,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 12c | 35,063$4,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,210.74 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 8c | 24,589$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.04 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 10,908$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.03 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…1db2backed Yes | 7c | 6,465$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 6,177$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.93 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…cb9cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,591$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.8 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40dc…51cabacked Yes | 9c | 5,375$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…1cc5backed Yes | 12c | 4,910$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 3c | 4,788$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 71c | 4,012$2,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.54 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 3,982$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.21 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 6c | 3,885$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.98 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,834$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,743$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 18c | 2,686$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.41 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 6c | 2,653$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…de57backed Yes | 10c | 2,453$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 9c | 2,448$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 70c | 2,383$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.83 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,293$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 77c | 2,263$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c39…6bbcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,172$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…cb72backed Yes | 13c | 2,146$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 8c | 2,079$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.36 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…5ebebacked Yes | 2c | 2,035$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…c543backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 67c | 1,573$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.67 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…a4fbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,569$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.58 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc2…be16backed Yes | 8c | 1,474$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,438$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd450…27cfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,435$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,396$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 74c | 1,329$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.67 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…418fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,236$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 1,183$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 72c | 1,163$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.44 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 28c | 1,110$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.2 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…97b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,099$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…3f96backed Yes | 7c | 1,092$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…7774backed Yes | 3c | 1,026$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…4b5ebacked Yes | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…ab78backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…79cebacked Yes | 15c | 943.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 69c | 907.14$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.14 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 873.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 20c | 859.4$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.58 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393c…7a6dbacked Yes | 32c | 780.39$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 69c | 749.13$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.62 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 27c | 743$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked Yes | 14c | 713.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…5922backed Yes | 29c | 699.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…3ceabacked Yes | 2c | 699$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…2e5abacked No | 60c | 685.64$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 10c | 681.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 26c | 670$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 6c | 665.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…f593backed Yes | 8c | 600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 15c | 571.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddb0…c4ebbacked Yes | 5c | 570$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…4256backed Yes | 4c | 565.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…2887backed Yes | 4c | 558.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 78c | 549.99$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…db3fbacked Yes | 6c | 526.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 29c | 524.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…e955backed Yes | 9c | 509.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…fd34backed Yes | 39c | 508.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Yes | 31c | 503.61$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 28c | 500$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…a0e1backed Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed Yes | 6c | 463.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 9c | 460.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…9431backed Yes | 2c | 448$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 73c | 436.66$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.26 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 19c | 422$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed Yes | 9c | 417$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed Yes | 13c | 393.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked Yes | 26c | 390.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…57fbbacked Yes | 7c | 371.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 77c | 366.99$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…a9c5backed Yes | 7c | 347.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed Yes | 13c | 343.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd213…12b3backed Yes | 27c | 328.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 25c | 321.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…9f55backed Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…9811backed Yes | 9c | 288.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 24c | 278.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 275.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…9b3dbacked No | 76c | 265.29$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 67c | 252.62$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?this page
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.