Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d00ab09f247ede23241d2abe257b4345dbb82b5e4eeae4eb2ba0980013a658c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $410,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $359,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 20c | 16,381$3,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,318.79 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…533abacked Yes | 1c | 15,121$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 12,082$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…1780backed Yes | 21c | 10,997$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 9c | 9,960$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.43 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 4c | 9,637$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.32 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 22c | 8,668$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.52 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…7049backed Yes | 27c | 8,529$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288.33 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…1db2backed Yes | 13c | 7,603$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 7,561$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.08 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked No | 73c | 6,989$5,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…f272backed Yes | 26c | 5,634$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 8c | 5,400$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.96 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 3c | 5,286$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.76 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.98 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 21c | 4,900$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.19 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 3c | 4,756$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…d784backed No | 74c | 4,306$3,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 3,899$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 14c | 3,217$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.94 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 76c | 3,194$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 10c | 3,085$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 3,051$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…dcc8backed Yes | 27c | 3,009$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.19 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1870…5857backed Yes | 9c | 2,759$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…8d55backed No | 73c | 2,747$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…0000backed Yes | 20c | 2,416$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 7c | 2,386$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 16c | 2,336$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.6 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 72c | 2,300$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.99 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 68c | 2,213$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.29 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…1076backed No | 70c | 2,132$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 27c | 2,105$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.29 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…9ddebacked Yes | 40c | 2,078$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,063$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.25 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 15c | 1,978$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.37 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 56c | 1,955$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.81 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…cb15backed Yes | 3c | 1,934$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…35cabacked Yes | 35c | 1,750$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 1,694$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.71 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 18c | 1,684$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.98 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed No | 61c | 1,648$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,569$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…cb53backed No | 73c | 1,542$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.3 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x776e…0198backed Yes | 23c | 1,538$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 79c | 1,520$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.3 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 71c | 1,427$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.74 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc6…b817backed Yes | 30c | 1,420$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896d…9dd0backed Yes | 20c | 1,389$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac4…de57backed Yes | 22c | 1,386$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd283…51ecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,357$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e879backed Yes | 30c | 1,335$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 76c | 1,310$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.07 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…622dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,242$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd450…27cfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,221$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 14c | 1,197$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.26 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…b169backed Yes | 13c | 1,178$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…dcc9backed No | 73c | 1,165$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.52 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 1,152$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…a683backed Yes | 30c | 1,128$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…b63ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,128$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 78c | 1,051$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.82 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 9c | 1,031$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…d29ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,001$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 68c | 1,000$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 78c | 999.99$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.28 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked Yes | 25c | 999.99$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 12c | 992.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…4d49backed No | 77c | 948.14$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 23c | 941.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.89 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…5edfbacked Yes | 3c | 940$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fe…e7debacked Yes | 4c | 930.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…725abacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e1…db83backed Yes | 4c | 908.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 20c | 888.62$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 79c | 884.08$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.47 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ef…0214backed Yes | 23c | 879.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcf…2dd4backed Yes | 27c | 860.45$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 78c | 857.29$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.32 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 845.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 10c | 815.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 17c | 800$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 63c | 794.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.72 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d82…a1eebacked No | 63c | 794.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…add0backed No | 66c | 760.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…e8bdbacked Yes | 27c | 750$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…b73ebacked Yes | 14c | 734.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 72c | 730$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 722$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 22c | 705.13$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe184…864cbacked Yes | 15c | 704.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 21c | 700$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…5fbfbacked Yes | 7c | 678.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 76c | 677.61$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? this page
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.