Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77284b1666a5407c886e15a68acc767ed5bc393a58450a32a8ef3f8afae5013c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 13c | 9,717$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.45 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,414$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.32 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,562$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 6c | 5,620$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.57 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 4,663$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 23c | 3,955$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.97 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…a395backed Yes | 15c | 2,302$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 13c | 2,296$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 13c | 2,276$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.88 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…7139backed No | 70c | 1,999$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed Yes | 28c | 1,900$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 12c | 1,544$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.82 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…2e5abacked No | 75c | 1,445$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 10c | 1,420$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…a0e1backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 6c | 1,308$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 16c | 1,141$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.35 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…533abacked Yes | 2c | 1,079$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d82…a1eebacked No | 74c | 992.35$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 14c | 980$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 74c | 936.26$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 19c | 920.62$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.14 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 77c | 890.54$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.93 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…0b91backed Yes | 12c | 833.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 827.23$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 26c | 804.43$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.43 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…db3abacked Yes | 17c | 798.18$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…14b7backed Yes | 28c | 764.02$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 751.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…ceebbacked No | 77c | 718.73$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…d4c5backed No | 73c | 699.99$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…cdbfbacked Yes | 27c | 694.36$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.23 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…5922backed Yes | 8c | 663.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 14c | 660$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…a4c9backed Yes | 18c | 614.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 25c | 610$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 76c | 583.29$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.84 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 19c | 580.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 18c | 528.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 526.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…4ca3backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 19c | 465.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 15c | 456.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 25c | 444$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b62bbacked Yes | 18c | 403.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 15c | 399.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 394.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Yes | 18c | 375.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 13c | 345.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 30c | 326.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f9…d2d3backed Yes | 16c | 318.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ba…70e0backed Yes | 17c | 307.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fe…e7debacked Yes | 14c | 294.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…5240backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1870…5857backed Yes | 17c | 288.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…e1ffbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 274.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 17c | 262.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb942…f73ebacked No | 71c | 257.14$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0b…c402backed No | 74c | 225.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a4…8c60backed Yes | 9c | 216.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d47…8644backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233d…6a8abacked Yes | 6c | 204.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…a691backed Yes | 16c | 193.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837a…255ebacked Yes | 19c | 192.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…1036backed Yes | 22c | 179.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240c…000abacked Yes | 31c | 174.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1007…75d4backed Yes | 43c | 168.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 18c | 159.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…c96cbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 11c | 152$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…d3ebbacked Yes | 18c | 148.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes | 20c | 141$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 27c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 80c | 139.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 70c | 130.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…16f4backed No | 79c | 126.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eff…ec23backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf851…bf07backed Yes | 10c | 116$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d29…96a7backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…b5d9backed Yes | 27c | 111.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…24f4backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5c10backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…d8ccbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…f07cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 17c | 97.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…7970backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…31b4backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?this page
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.