TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xec76…1036

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1650%8 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+98.8%+$82.14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+212.5%+$85
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+70.9%+$41.5
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+121.2%+$134.53
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$256.6
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.01
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.46
Will Russia capture Siversk before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.4
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+42%+$208.52
Will Ukraine control Demidovka on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.89
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$97.24
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$689Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+57.1%+$393.35
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+113.3%+$172.82
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11.11
All 16 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.9
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$255.09
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$193.62
Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$256.23
Will Man City win on 2024-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$38.07
Will Spurs win on 2024-11-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$89.1
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+89.2%+$146.16
Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+203%+$100.5
Will Wolves win on 2024-11-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$27
Will Villa win on 2024-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$114.03
Will Fulham win on 2024-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$43.12
Will Bournemouth vs. Brighton end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$48.87
Will Everton win on 2024-11-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+143.9%+$58.99
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+32%+$118.22
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.16
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+138%+$57.28
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+94.5%+$66.15
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Liberal Reform Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$794Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$793.54
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$1,054.94
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,034Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+39.8%+$810.32
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$164.97
Gaethje vs. Fizievbacked Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$145
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Putin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$38.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$8.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$5,057Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+57.8%+$2,921.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$222.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.84
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.