Ukraine · resolved market
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57858d7b061a48238bf51d254f40279a1244e12ba08cc7c3c30a99f668a7102f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,108,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,527,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,108,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 411 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6922…7f8fbacked Yes | 8c | 492,485$37,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,272.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4716…5b50backed Yes | 13c | 258,937$34,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,890.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x956e…f324backed Yes | 2c | 166,509$3,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,259.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…c5aebacked Yes | 11c | 110,595$11,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,915.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…2b23backed Yes | 10c | 84,090$8,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,641.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 9c | 76,443$6,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,590.74 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…0cdbbacked Yes | 1c | 56,725$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…6a0dbacked Yes | 10c | 47,500$4,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,807.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes | 10c | 46,635$4,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,758.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…74a5backed Yes | 1c | 46,268$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…208dbacked Yes | 9c | 44,548$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2c…82d7backed Yes | 2c | 42,848$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 7c | 39,366$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.53 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 8c | 35,451$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.74 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 8c | 32,210$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.48 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ce…a5bcbacked Yes | 4c | 31,398$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…a844backed Yes | 6c | 30,530$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392f…79c3backed Yes | 1c | 30,482$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…72d5backed Yes | 11c | 30,204$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…59cbbacked Yes | 1c | 28,914$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 23,934$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.32 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 23,800$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 11c | 22,589$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…267fbacked Yes | 8c | 20,459$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 15c | 20,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 47cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 19,621$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…ae54backed Yes | 1c | 18,618$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…7c51backed Yes | 5c | 18,322$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…8665backed Yes | 2c | 18,090$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27aa…b07ebacked Yes | 7c | 17,832$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…1138backed Yes | 11c | 17,520$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9181…cc75backed Yes | 7c | 14,810$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 14,716$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.29 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3899…452ebacked Yes | 15c | 14,418$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,231.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 15c | 14,380$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 14,332$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…8e4cbacked Yes | 12c | 14,245$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…0deebacked Yes | 9c | 13,799$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…2b3cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,546$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…a195backed Yes | 5c | 12,138$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…ddabbacked Yes | 8c | 12,068$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 11,138$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.69 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 11,047$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…de74backed Yes | 1c | 10,953$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…e7e5backed Yes | 1c | 10,505$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…8393backed Yes | 5c | 10,498$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…017ebacked Yes | 3c | 10,348$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…4973backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…11dfbacked Yes | 19c | 9,726$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…0378backed Yes | 11c | 8,589$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 7c | 8,546$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 14c | 8,512$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc96…16e4backed Yes | 5c | 8,480$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 8,166$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 9c | 8,136$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ba…b2c4backed Yes | 2c | 7,901$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,491$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yes | 13c | 7,240$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…308bbacked Yes | 15c | 7,194$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442c…4e39backed Yes | 8c | 6,960$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed Yes | 9c | 6,340$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…cf57backed Yes | 11c | 6,252$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…91bebacked Yes | 9c | 6,146$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…2cf2backed Yes | 17c | 5,881$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5a…7c39backed Yes | 8c | 5,811$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…6bd0backed Yes | 14c | 5,714$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 68c | 5,710$3,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.89 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…bef7backed Yes | 1c | 5,191$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…3227backed Yes | 14c | 4,925$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 8c | 4,917$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…4be4backed Yes | 2c | 4,799$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…e233backed Yes | 17c | 4,741$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef8…24efbacked Yes | 8c | 4,644$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…170dbacked Yes | 13c | 4,364$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 4,287$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.95 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…4fbebacked Yes | 1c | 4,055$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed Yes | 0c | 4,002$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…17cbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd7…f8b3backed Yes | 13c | 3,963$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ab…c99abacked Yes | 4c | 3,851$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdb…09e6backed Yes | 11c | 3,800$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 14c | 3,570$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,542$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc6…dababacked Yes | 14c | 3,358$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 4c | 3,301$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…a663backed Yes | 7c | 3,293$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 9c | 3,263$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.67 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 8c | 3,125$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b64…825ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,102$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc6…b817backed Yes | 7c | 3,020$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 4c | 2,999$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…4cdebacked Yes | 10c | 2,869$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 9c | 2,869$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7624…f4f6backed Yes | 11c | 2,779$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.