TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,108,187
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,527,973

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,108,187 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 411 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6922…7f8fbacked Yes8c492,485$37,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,272.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4716…5b50backed Yes13c258,937$34,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,890.2740%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x956e…f324backed Yes2c166,509$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,259.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x840a…c5aebacked Yes11c110,595$11,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,915.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad1…2b23backed Yes10c84,090$8,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,641.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes9c76,443$6,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,590.74147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03dd…0cdbbacked Yes1c56,725$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0460…6a0dbacked Yes10c47,500$4,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,807.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes10c46,635$4,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,758.7550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x320f…74a5backed Yes1c46,268$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8489…208dbacked Yes9c44,548$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,230.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2c…82d7backed Yes2c42,848$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes7c39,366$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.533262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes8c35,451$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.742020%4 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-73.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes8c32,210$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.48905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ce…a5bcbacked Yes4c31,398$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f6…a844backed Yes6c30,530$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x392f…79c3backed Yes1c30,482$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0022…72d5backed Yes11c30,204$3,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,430.140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes1c30,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba9…59cbbacked Yes1c28,914$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c23,934$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.32110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c23,800$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316651.5%1 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes11c22,589$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.61425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40f6…267fbacked Yes8c20,459$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes15c20,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.98119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.37per pick47cpaid-80.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes2c19,621$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.17812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b22…ae54backed Yes1c18,618$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc907…7c51backed Yes5c18,322$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6e…8665backed Yes2c18,090$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27aa…b07ebacked Yes7c17,832$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc103…1138backed Yes11c17,520$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9181…cc75backed Yes7c14,810$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes4c14,716$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.2912927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3899…452ebacked Yes15c14,418$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,231.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes15c14,380$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1573683.3%30 W · 6 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes1c14,332$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.53729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc942…8e4cbacked Yes12c14,245$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdf92…0deebacked Yes9c13,799$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0d4…2b3cbacked Yes0c12,546$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bba…a195backed Yes5c12,138$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2399…ddabbacked Yes8c12,068$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes3c11,138$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.695922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfef5…517ebacked Yes10c11,047$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e56…de74backed Yes1c10,953$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823d…e7e5backed Yes1c10,505$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7760%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d85…8393backed Yes5c10,498$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fec…017ebacked Yes3c10,348$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002532%8 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…4973backed Yes13c10,000$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x135f…11dfbacked Yes19c9,726$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f1…0378backed Yes11c8,589$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb73…c340backed Yes7c8,546$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf817…d678backed Yes14c8,512$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc96…16e4backed Yes5c8,480$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes1c8,166$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5511040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes9c8,136$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ba…b2c4backed Yes2c7,901$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes1c7,491$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Yes13c7,240$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x762e…308bbacked Yes15c7,194$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x442c…4e39backed Yes8c6,960$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d72…cca4backed Yes9c6,340$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cda…cf57backed Yes11c6,252$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.2170%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x550d…91bebacked Yes9c6,146$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3320…2cf2backed Yes17c5,881$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5a…7c39backed Yes8c5,811$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f4…6bd0backed Yes14c5,714$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No68c5,710$3,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.893847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+81.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcae6…bef7backed Yes1c5,191$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40090%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa613…3227backed Yes14c4,925$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes8c4,917$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.7790%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bd5…4be4backed Yes2c4,799$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…e233backed Yes17c4,741$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef8…24efbacked Yes8c4,644$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e2…170dbacked Yes13c4,364$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c4,287$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9539429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d4…4fbebacked Yes1c4,055$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7750%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7295…e951backed Yes0c4,002$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf807…17cbbacked Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd7…f8b3backed Yes13c3,963$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ab…c99abacked Yes4c3,851$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdb…09e6backed Yes11c3,800$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes14c3,570$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.850%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes10c3,542$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc6…dababacked Yes14c3,358$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes4c3,301$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.043348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb715…a663backed Yes7c3,293$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes9c3,263$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.677733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes8c3,125$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b64…825ebacked Yes2c3,102$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc6…b817backed Yes7c3,020$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.290%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes2c3,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.75110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes12c3,000$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.941421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid+45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06df…4e7abacked Yes4c2,999$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.98728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e8…4cdebacked Yes10c2,869$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44aa…42a4backed Yes9c2,869$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7624…f4f6backed Yes11c2,779$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.