TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc331…1d71

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
279
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT11417.5%20 W · 94 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 114 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$29.47
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+57.4%+$229.49
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+81.7%+$98.08
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+1,662.5%+$332.5
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+1,198.7%+$599.35
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+265.5%+$362.92
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+59.2%+$59.21
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$155
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+416.3%+$249.78
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.93
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+332.3%+$332.32
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.86
Showing 25 of 114 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT4117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+367.3%+$2,240.65
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Yoon out of custody by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.27
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+293.6%+$352.27
Yoon out of custody in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$318.31
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$320
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+222.6%+$667.74
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+103.8%+$103.82
North Korea missile launch by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+3,176.1%+$1,270.45
Kweon Seong-dong in jail by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$598.4
Yoon out of custody by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$342.04
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$490
25% South Korea tariff in effect by August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Yoon arrested by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.67
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.96
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will the candidate from the New Future Party win the South Korean Presidential Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Lee Jae-myung win Seoul (서울) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$442.48
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$974Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$973.75
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT2814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+349.8%+$699.56
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$1,031.96
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$215.94
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$36.83
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+257.1%+$102.86
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,890Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,890
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump dance in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+230.8%+$369.36
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$260
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14.97
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$79.96
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$210
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Nord Stream pipeline turned on in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$310
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$240
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.07
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.9
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+315.2%+$630.44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Zelensky wear suit next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$220
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+445.5%+$2,237.21
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+27%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+195%+$195.04
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$38.82
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.51
Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+179.2%+$235.34
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+270.4%+$270.37
Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$104
Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+566.7%+$1,133.33
All 15 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Hulk Hogan: Real American" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$134
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+462.9%+$92.57
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $65m and $70m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $65m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
"Demon Slayer" grosses higher than "The Conjuring" opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90 and 94?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be 98 or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85 and 89?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will 'Conclave' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT110%0 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.68
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 260,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$207
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$261.42
All 11 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+105.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.