Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a4da454c850edf2fb7ce33be4ad6749a8ca9c19c1153a1223d2b91d344c0713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 17c | 10,842$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 75c | 6,161$4,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.6 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 3,291$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.48 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 18c | 2,569$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.65 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 2,087$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.73 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed Yes | 26c | 1,913$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked No | 78c | 1,339$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 70c | 1,334$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.21 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes | 24c | 1,184$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,073$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.29 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 1,009$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.32 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.88 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 70c | 999.99$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 25c | 955.42$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 23c | 900$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.72 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 77c | 800$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 35c | 632.52$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 25c | 599.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…cf42backed No | 70c | 574.2$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 551.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 495.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 41c | 492.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 66c | 475.79$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.95 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 27c | 463.75$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 29c | 441.63$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 72c | 437.99$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 6c | 422.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5510backed No | 71c | 400$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…75d9backed Yes | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe717…ea8ebacked Yes | 32c | 391.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 376.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Yes | 29c | 372.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 23c | 371.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 27c | 367.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 23c | 357.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600d…8261backed Yes | 28c | 353$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 346.79$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.43 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 72c | 337.01$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c9…4ecfbacked Yes | 31c | 333.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 29c | 329.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 36c | 324.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 24c | 320.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x687e…de8bbacked Yes | 36c | 310.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 70c | 300$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 292.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126a…e83bbacked Yes | 31c | 288.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 35c | 286.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 10c | 277.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 73c | 271.95$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 33c | 269.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 34c | 229.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a1…f485backed No | 67c | 215$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…d81fbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac49…67c4backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…d122backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 199.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35cc…88c1backed Yes | 28c | 197.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 20c | 195.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Yes | 28c | 193.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 31c | 184.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 184.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…015dbacked Yes | 39c | 177.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 37c | 161.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…f746backed Yes | 32c | 158.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ef…e9cfbacked Yes | 34c | 158.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed No | 66c | 157.64$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +223.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…d2afbacked Yes | 37c | 142.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed No | 71c | 139.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…56f6backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed No | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cff…6c34backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e3…6144backed Yes | 28c | 124.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a2…e288backed Yes | 24c | 124.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 70c | 120.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…8a79backed Yes | 29c | 116.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 113.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 19c | 113.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…44f1backed Yes | 10c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…e9fdbacked Yes | 29c | 104.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…3bc7backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…7e5abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…599dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…6f18backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…ab37backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30?this page
- Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?No won
- Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.