Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58196c2a2367727f8ab0badc6213677419f1f6a326b1f0b55dd41a47b6dc5c5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,555$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 6c | 1,220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 944.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 20c | 527.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 42c | 371.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed No | 58c | 343.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 41c | 293.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…0b6fbacked No | 75c | 278.25$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes | 56c | 270.66$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed Yes | 33c | 260.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35cc…88c1backed Yes | 68c | 251.91$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…9ae5backed Yes | 43c | 232.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…5d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 226.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…e9fdbacked No | 56c | 202.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 48c | 199.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 25c | 199.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 15c | 197.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 41c | 191.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 23c | 171$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.42 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f1…c9c4backed Yes | 21c | 120.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 21c | 119.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 41c | 116$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…353cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 18c | 89.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…becfbacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6d86backed Yes | 16c | 79.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 53c | 60.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3521…23b3backed Yes | 31c | 50.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…11f6backed No | 50c | 50.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…8e46backed Yes | 43c | 47.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cda…17abbacked No | 46c | 46.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 48c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…e18abacked No | 59c | 43.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cff…6c34backed Yes | 46c | 43.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095a…780cbacked Yes | 71c | 42.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…455dbacked No | 73c | 41.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…e785backed No | 59c | 36.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes | 53c | 34.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…bd64backed No | 46c | 34.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 31.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…13edbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a5…1ff2backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…81a2backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…e454backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…1a23backed No | 56c | 19.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…556abacked No | 76c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?this page
- Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 21?No won
- Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.