TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0960…455d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
106
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT3345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+166.7%+$50.63
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+88.7%+$26.6
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+80%+$37.26
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+132.6%+$17.1
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$40.9
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+152.8%+$54.4
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+76.7%+$30.7
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$23.98
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$41.2
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+117.4%+$35.22
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$65.17
US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
EU sanctions on Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+57.7%+$23.09
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+238.1%+$169.07
Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$12.25
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$15.45
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$49.22
Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+79.8%+$392.2
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$130
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$21.34
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$17.04
Will Keir Starmer say "Russia" or Russian" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+135%+$33.74
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+815.1%+$273.39
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$54.12
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+137.8%+$399.71
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19.34
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 18 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-57.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.95
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$26.51
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.99
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37.9%+$11.37
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.3%+$12.27
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.6
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$228.8
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+127.8%+$28.12
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$41.6
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Russia announces air truce by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$16.73
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+181.4%+$67.14
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+158.7%+$31.74
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+185.2%+$64.83
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+108.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+30%+$10.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+25%+$2.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.