Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeec8878a64e41f43b81c4402f6b93f07899a85aff3be0683565aedbd23f99d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $710,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $661,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $710,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 20c | 14,510$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 13,531$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.18 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed No | 73c | 9,112$6,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed No | 77c | 8,661$6,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 28c | 7,943$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 0c | 7,870$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 15c | 7,804$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.82 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 15c | 7,150$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.15 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 10c | 7,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.99 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 0c | 6,909$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 12c | 6,881$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.9 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 13c | 6,865$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes | 1c | 6,854$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,593$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 8c | 6,435$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.25 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7997…04afbacked No | 79c | 6,329$4,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 19c | 6,198$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.95 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 5,912$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.65 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 5,521$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.71 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 15c | 5,442$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.85 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 5,122$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.5 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 5,095$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.21 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,038$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.22 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 16c | 5,006$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.15 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…c2c7backed Yes | 17c | 4,902$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 71c | 4,684$3,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.96 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 80c | 4,644$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.69 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,412$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…86f7backed Yes | 2c | 4,383$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed Yes | 18c | 4,223$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 27c | 4,000$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 20c | 3,782$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 14c | 3,667$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 3,600$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.59 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,552$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.54 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 3,508$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 3,484$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.56 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 20c | 3,257$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,207$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.92 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 7c | 3,006$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.73 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…867abacked Yes | 22c | 3,000$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,778$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…9785backed Yes | 1c | 2,755$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 11c | 2,714$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed No | 77c | 2,648$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 18c | 2,647$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.35 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 7c | 2,601$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 9c | 2,600$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.72 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed No | 78c | 2,554$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 16c | 2,543$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.62 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 28c | 2,531$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.19 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa167…729ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,481$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,368$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b08…1a9dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,348$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 16c | 2,200$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 15c | 2,189$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,182$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.82 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…dfc1backed Yes | 1c | 2,162$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…79c1backed Yes | 1c | 2,107$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed Yes | 1c | 2,050$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,956$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,951$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000e…99bcbacked Yes | 26c | 1,922$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 5c | 1,850$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 78c | 1,822$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf12…4b5ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 17c | 1,786$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.96 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,750$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,745$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 12c | 1,727$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 19c | 1,700$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…baebbacked Yes | 17c | 1,691$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 16c | 1,657$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…641cbacked No | 78c | 1,600$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…6855backed No | 78c | 1,538$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,504$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked No | 80c | 1,500$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,456$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…c8ebbacked Yes | 29c | 1,451$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 28c | 1,435$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,389$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 21c | 1,315$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.73 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a9…1a44backed No | 73c | 1,303$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes | 17c | 1,280$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 1,259$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…bbe3backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,126$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 26c | 1,120$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…aec4backed Yes | 19c | 1,069$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 10c | 1,051$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4b…e511backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…f237backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked No | 79c | 999.99$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 985.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 15c | 981.33$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…f3f7backed Yes | 31c | 963.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?this page
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.