Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0050f8aef29c23b6796398e97ad355b46c9780450fc68f40b283bb0a9bb61189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe438…9a9abacked Yes | 28c | 12,929$3,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,620 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 9,364$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.26 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 14c | 8,079$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.48 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 15c | 7,885$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.9 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…8f85backed No | 80c | 7,162$5,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 40c | 6,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 45c | 4,537$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.66 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…80b6backed No | 72c | 3,800$2,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed No | 54c | 3,492$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 13c | 3,454$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.8 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked No | 75c | 3,338$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4d…1d72backed No | 72c | 3,200$2,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5418…a394backed No | 72c | 3,150$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a9…b076backed No | 72c | 3,100$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 38c | 2,809$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.04 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 29c | 2,746$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.83 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 26c | 2,682$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.97 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…17c0backed No | 65c | 2,499$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 69c | 2,444$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.45 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 2,292$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.09 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,219$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 76c | 2,104$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,001$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 62c | 1,981$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…821ebacked No | 63c | 1,865$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf4…fe79backed Yes | 3c | 1,674$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…a5d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,652$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…91e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,652$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2a…806abacked Yes | 2c | 1,627$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 11c | 1,600$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…30f5backed No | 70c | 1,543$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 77c | 1,513$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…ed86backed Yes | 2c | 1,419$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 1,121$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.68 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked No | 65c | 1,092$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 6c | 1,047$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 40c | 1,022$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.35 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…a71dbacked No | 63c | 1,012$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,007$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.26 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9a…7cdcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.7 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…1132backed No | 70c | 985.73$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 77c | 968.51$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.03 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed Yes | 33c | 918.96$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 11c | 776.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes | 59c | 764.57$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 750$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…eeb1backed No | 69c | 746.32$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…b4f4backed Yes | 34c | 743.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cb…2b55backed No | 48c | 737.57$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6745…f6e1backed Yes | 1c | 730.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 65c | 728.57$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…5ac8backed No | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 31c | 724.64$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 715.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 31c | 699.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…af69backed No | 60c | 696.67$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1e…d371backed No | 79c | 631.52$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 620.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 32c | 612.64$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…5447backed Yes | 5c | 610.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 27c | 599.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 598.89$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.28 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 586.16$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.74 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…a4a0backed Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 556$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…9cd4backed Yes | 27c | 553.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 68c | 538.37$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…0363backed No | 53c | 522.02$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…95ebbacked No | 57c | 518.77$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 22c | 506.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 75c | 500$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.9 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…b220backed Yes | 30c | 500$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830a…bc9ebacked No | 72c | 497.09$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 496.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 486.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 479.21$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.17 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 475.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 27c | 437.76$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed No | 73c | 437.76$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 4c | 414.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 78c | 411$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 49c | 400$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 72c | 391.33$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.31 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 388.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…9c0cbacked No | 63c | 385.94$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 71c | 378.4$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 79c | 377$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 29c | 375.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes | 53c | 374.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…b68fbacked No | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 25c | 361.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3898…e689backed No | 60c | 358.02$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff9…49e4backed Yes | 29c | 347.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?this page
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.