TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x33e0…7d46

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
141
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Tennis, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$9,983Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$6,382.82
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,269Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$2,361.87
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46,720Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$46,719.54
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$1,000
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,699.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29,037Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+103.8%+$30,144.31
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30,674Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30,673.83
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$914Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$913.58
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$85.56
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$5,503Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.2%+$5,955.9
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27,346Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27,345.73
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$6,079Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$6,079.15
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,912Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+56.6%+$2,213.41
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+313.5%+$1,550.25
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,851Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$6,850.64
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$33,306Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33,305.68
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$36.48
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75,243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$75,243.26
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$9,709Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+33.4%+$3,241.4
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$101,770Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+44.8%+$45,552.65
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$73,025Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+72.1%+$52,660.62
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$5,391Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$5,390.62
US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$6,746Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+74.8%+$5,042.75
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$195
Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$186
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$152.84
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$438.21
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11,217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11,216.9
Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+48.9%+$146.91
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+78.6%+$879.96
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,489Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+49.3%+$733.26
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+117.4%+$539.93
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$22,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$22,599.98
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$31,108Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+82.1%+$25,544.32
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$5,341.14
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,476Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,476.39
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$35,758Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+26.4%+$9,455.64
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11,029.94
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,658Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+42.9%+$1,567.5
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$779.99
All 15 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$81,338Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+109.9%+$89,378.61
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,179Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$846.97
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,222Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,221.83
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.64
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$312.09
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$379.5
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,887Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,887.23
Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+82.1%+$126.2
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$733Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$733.48
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,470Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$1,469.97
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$275.26
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$280
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$758Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$758.41
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,720Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+47.1%+$1,280
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,639Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$1,639.03
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$627Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+347.9%+$2,180.01
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$4,682Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,682.25
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$164.77
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,450Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+244.8%+$3,549.97
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,500
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+75.4%+$214.69
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+37%+$270
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$68,559Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+28.3%+$19,430.92
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$8,413Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+142.1%+$11,954.8
Congress passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$871Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$870.52
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,214Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,213.85
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$351.67
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$6,125Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+26.4%+$1,618.3
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$5,699Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$5,699.26
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21,151Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$21,151.33
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,850Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$1,850
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+51.5%+$1,700
Will FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$416.82
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-12-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$3,101Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$3,101.36
FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$548Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+95.8%+$524.89
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$513
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+112.8%+$265
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+80.1%+$1,698.03
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+69.5%+$194.73
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$98.09
FC Bayern München vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$195
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$224.13
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14,094Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$9,931.8
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,493Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$2,493.13
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+56.2%+$192.52
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,082Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+284.6%+$3,079.32
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$5,886Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+126.2%+$7,429.14
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$21,054Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+35.8%+$7,532.42
Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$286.5
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$410
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,785Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,785
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$7,486Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,485.69
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,045
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,086Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$1,086.07
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$22,771Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22,771.1
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+30.1%+$11,971.06
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,779.14
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+150%+$421.04
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14,008Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14,007.72
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,065Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,064.99
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakinabacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,006Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$1,006.46
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26,681Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$26,681.4
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+270.4%+$1,459.99
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+316.7%+$1,388.72
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,067Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$1,066.75
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,375Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+33.3%+$791.85
Rolex Paris Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$360
Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nuno Borgesbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$280
All 8 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colts vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22,800Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+75.4%+$17,200
Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$8,286Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$8,285.73
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$2,599.99
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+112.8%+$212
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)backed Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+96.1%+$39.38
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,570Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,570
Falcons vs. Saintsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,254Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+61.3%+$768.97
Colts vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18,300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+63.9%+$11,700
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$922Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$922.02
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26,486Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26,486.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$629Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+98.9%+$622.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
St. John's Red Storm vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11,670Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+88.5%+$10,329.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-12-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+81.8%+$210.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+78.6%+$1,099.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$64,212Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+32.1%+$20,633.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,310Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+29.9%+$690
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,160Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$840
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Tate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$23,124Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$23,123.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.