Tennis · resolved market

Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nuno Borges

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc89ce61219ec1163b8837ac58bec1c0cbeb817661d5d033a6305c0068ed63e3e

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Medvedevof Medvedev, Borges
Resolved: Oct 22, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $150,500
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $166,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,500 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Borges	14c	28,333$3,932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,931.79	8,241	45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L	+166.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Borges	18c	14,212$2,558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,558.18	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Borges	0c	11,103$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.63	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Borges	19c	9,370$1,780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,780.21	91	37.4%34 W · 57 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Borges	20c	8,926$1,814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,814.21	158	32.3%51 W · 107 L	-13.6wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Borges	19c	8,033$1,559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,558.95	11,666	43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L	+22.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Medvedev	79c	6,296$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,296.47	189	33.9%64 W · 125 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Borges	20c	2,504$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.85	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Borges	19c	2,500$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.53	2,068	34.9%721 W · 1,347 L	-44.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Borges	22c	2,316$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.44	476	39.1%186 W · 290 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Borges	16c	2,101$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.84	652	42.8%279 W · 373 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Borges	18c	2,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Medvedev	80c	1,592$1,274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318.49	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	57cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Borges	19c	1,521$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.12	2,865	44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Borges	21c	1,400$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.26	441	25.4%112 W · 329 L	-11.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06da…3181backed Medvedev	77c	1,161$896 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.4	85	62.4%53 W · 32 L	+6.3wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbd7…51fcbacked Borges	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Medvedev	72c	1,000$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Borges	12c	879.21$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.71	755	47.8%361 W · 394 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Borges	19c	869$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.4	139	35.3%49 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed Borges	20c	700.15$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.26	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Borges	6c	666.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	174	42.5%74 W · 100 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Borges	19c	618.12$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.9	627	42.4%266 W · 361 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dcd…1722backed Borges	20c	603.64$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.69	61	26.2%16 W · 45 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Medvedev	80c	500$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	120	50%60 W · 60 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Borges	34c	482$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.88	284	43%122 W · 162 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Borges	8c	477$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.21	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Borges	15c	421.62$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.41	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Borges	20c	400$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Borges	19c	398.88$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.25	1,655	50.1%829 W · 826 L	+30.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc913…81d6backed Borges	20c	364$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.8	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c3…bdf4backed Medvedev	77c	338.17$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed Medvedev	76c	309$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.16	119	43.7%52 W · 67 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f83…7252backed Borges	18c	300$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	-7.3wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Borges	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	82	43.9%36 W · 46 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8c…b52cbacked Borges	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	67	37.3%25 W · 42 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Borges	18c	249.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	189	43.4%82 W · 107 L	-8.8wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Medvedev	68c	220.59$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.59	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Borges	16c	212.66$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.96	951	40.1%381 W · 570 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Borges	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	224	49.6%111 W · 113 L	+17.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Borges	12c	175$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	115	33.9%39 W · 76 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed Borges	6c	170.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Medvedev	80c	130$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	58	62.1%36 W · 22 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a11…db4bbacked Medvedev	78c	128.21$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.21	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	64cpaid	-22%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Medvedev	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	465	56.1%261 W · 204 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Borges	17c	118$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	82	8.5%7 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Borges	19c	103.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-2.7wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07fe…0a16backed Medvedev	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	270	58.1%157 W · 113 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1e…230abacked Borges	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	318	19.2%61 W · 257 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1191…f6a8backed Borges	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Borges	18c	99.43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	1,056	55.4%585 W · 471 L	-22.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfa…faa4backed Medvedev	79c	81.33$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.08	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf24…0039backed Medvedev	80c	68.75$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.75	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	70cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x105f…b392backed Medvedev	80c	62.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.53	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Medvedev	80c	62.5$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	431	58.2%251 W · 180 L	-5.2wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05b0…e8fcbacked Medvedev	80c	62.5$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Borges	25c	62.16$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8576…3be6backed Medvedev	79c	62.03$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.03	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Borges	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	639	42.4%271 W · 368 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Medvedev	68c	44$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.08	267	46.1%123 W · 144 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Medvedev	67c	43.77$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.44	114	57.9%66 W · 48 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…df17backed Borges	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked Medvedev	79c	37.97$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa782…bdb3backed Medvedev	80c	33.5$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.7	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	64cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b01…7481backed Medvedev	80c	31.25$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.25	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x854c…a964backed Medvedev	80c	31.25$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.25	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Medvedev	80c	27.5$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.5	360	47.2%170 W · 190 L	+9.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2c…1b20backed Medvedev	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa37a…b9c7backed Medvedev	72c	15.18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nuno Borges

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market