Fed Rates · resolved market
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30dbbd020151d9cf6190947a27e72a01e657f2670db583c10658ddc78f020460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 0c | 14,629$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 3c | 3,180$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 17c | 2,116$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 41c | 1,500$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.47 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 14c | 1,428$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 14c | 1,428$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 59c | 1,424$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked Yes | 75c | 1,271$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed No | 28c | 986.98$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 55c | 920.01$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…24ddbacked No | 29c | 862.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…f974backed No | 29c | 812.62$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 68c | 500$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 71c | 416.88$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.55 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed No | 42c | 351.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3e…6650backed Yes | 75c | 347.83$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 70c | 331.52$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.06 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 72c | 314.12$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.17 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.8 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 40c | 279.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 57c | 251$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 65c | 250$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.69 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…b30ebacked Yes | 77c | 241.69$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 30c | 200$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 172.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…acbbbacked Yes | 77c | 168.23$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89aa…4793backed Yes | 67c | 168$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 71c | 151.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…4cb4backed Yes | 69c | 143.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…6112backed Yes | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a21…2152backed Yes | 75c | 137.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 14c | 125.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 46c | 116.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2766…bec0backed Yes | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 76c | 111$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…90f5backed Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 29c | 85.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…d11bbacked Yes | 73c | 64.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…a49fbacked Yes | 74c | 49.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 70c | 42.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a4…b510backed Yes | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 63c | 31.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…fa4fbacked Yes | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42a…bf9ebacked Yes | 59c | 30.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…6818backed Yes | 68c | 29.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ef…682fbacked No | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…a452backed Yes | 54c | 20.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…e5ffbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent October Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.