Fed Rates · resolved market
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8347fdfd47e2298171cf432bcfb491a711a16e0ff8da245a89f34871836941d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 20c | 3,662$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.09 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,177$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.77 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…5ee2backed Yes | 21c | 501.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…cd93backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 20c | 408.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 15c | 270$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…0a49backed Yes | 20c | 262.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf0…47e5backed Yes | 20c | 206.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 21c | 126.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 21c | 126.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…920cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf185…2ab4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…fa92backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…1a55backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…ba7fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 79c | 77.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent October Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.