TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb1a1…dd34

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
798
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: NFL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 57 out of 100; worst Movies at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT19856.1%111 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 198 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+76.5%+$826.53
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$125.35
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+55.1%+$165.38
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$159.64
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$44.93
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$25
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$61.54
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$94.12
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+54.8%+$54.8
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Elimination Roundbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$243.39
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+52.8%+$105.5
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$254.95
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$188
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 198 picks, newest first.
Earningslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT15564.5%100 W · 55 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 155 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+110.6%+$199.1
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.6
Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+39%+$84.35
Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$543.49
Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$631Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$157.63
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.55
Will Coursera (COUR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.97
Will T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$44.4
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will CME (CME) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.13
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.22
Will Infosys (INFY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$347.61
Will United Bankshares (UBSI) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+25%+$14.45
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+111.7%+$30.12
Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+51%+$20.41
Will PDD Holdings (PDD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.6
Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+45.6%+$15.44
Will Urban Outfitters (URBN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$82.95
Will IONQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+260.5%+$225.45
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$324.22
Will Deere (DE) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+69%+$30.14
Will Wingstop (WING) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+40.7%+$40.5
Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+28.2%+$79.55
Showing 25 of 155 picks, newest first.
Stockslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT6150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on August 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$526Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$526
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+140.6%+$428.38
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 27 – Jul 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$250.12
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+29%+$11.25
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$225
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$865
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$146.11
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+382.2%+$424.04
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+56%+$270.1
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30.01
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.9
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 27 above $200?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66%+$159
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 30 above $170?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+120.5%+$382.5
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 23 above $180?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.07
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$671Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$670.69
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.22
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.5
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$411.6
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$158.45
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+67.1%+$32.12
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $410-$420 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$145.14
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $175?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+66.7%+$37.31
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $180?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$85.72
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$518
Will a Goal be Scored During 106-120 Minute?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$977Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$977.16
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$171.56
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,031Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+142.5%+$1,468.99
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,274.77
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,341.36
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,606Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$499.75
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,409Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,409.04
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$471Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+69.9%+$329
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$392
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$390
Will Vinicius Jr. score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.41
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.31
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$102.4
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$407.6
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$205
Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$63.16
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$190.63
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$270
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$679.99
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,354.2
Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.11
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.55
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT4957.1%28 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.73
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,506Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,505.79
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,241.35
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$129
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$711Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$711.3
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$18.16
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$164.49
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$608
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$767Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$767.25
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$58.22
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23.02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$31.05
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$400.76
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$84
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$149.92
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$96.3
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$119.87
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$190.6
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,012Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,011.9
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,022Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,022
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$401.54
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$290.43
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT4254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$848Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+58.6%+$497.23
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$483.98
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$385.66
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+429.1%+$186.61
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$17.23
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$309.32
Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.2M in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.11
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.03
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.43
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.38
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% or less in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,078Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$406.25
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+80.4%+$237.97
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$242.65
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.68
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$142.5
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.5
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.93
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.71
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.51
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$183.81
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+151.6%+$274.34
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$23.98
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT3855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$584.8
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.3
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$739Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$261.37
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,002Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,001.92
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+48%+$61.77
Grok 4.4 released by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$115.2
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+72.9%+$174.55
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$742Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+54.7%+$405.86
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.44
Will Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenue be above $6.0B in Q2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.57
Will Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenue be above $5.9B in Q2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+31%+$120.82
Will Cisco's Networking revenue be above $9.0B in Q3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+40%+$164.88
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$151.27
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$106.87
GPT-5.4 released by March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$35.56
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$189.65
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.4%+$33.79
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+47.1%+$106.6
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$98.74
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+36.3%+$50.77
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12.63
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+31.3%+$155.19
Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+148.7%+$200.87
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $620b on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+202.1%+$136.81
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT3847.4%18 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.58
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.5
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.6
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$54.32
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$238
Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$16.32
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$328.59
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$448.08
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$367.82
Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+30.2%+$59.17
Will "Wuthering Heights" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+26.6%+$34.33
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$17.04
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$32.28
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+92.3%+$84.82
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6.5m and 8m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+38.9%+$19.6
Will "Solo Mio" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+44.9%+$13.33
Will Send Help or Iron Lung gross more on their opening weekend?backed Iron Lung · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$79.2
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+27.7%+$54.82
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+34.8%+$31
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 24m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+34.1%+$44.5
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+42.6%+$96.71
Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$33.21
"Black Phone 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 84?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.02
"Black Phone 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 70?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$4.5
Will "Soul on Fire" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.2
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT3357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of August 3 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$774Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+64.3%+$497.83
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,743Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+100.3%+$1,747.52
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+82.6%+$162.36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$122.47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+98.2%+$214.99
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$366.85
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$318.4
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$685Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$319.95
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$575Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+142.7%+$820.24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+45.7%+$147.58
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$74.09
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$83.36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$147
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.63
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$250.94
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$70.52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$133.01
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$68.81
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+67%+$100.87
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$451.01
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT3063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$126.84
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.7
Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+151.3%+$90.36
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$135.24
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,692Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$1,425.13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$7,443Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$2,189.93
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,678Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,678.04
Will one person dissent the June Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.94
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$632Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+73.4%+$464.05
Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.39
Fed cuts 25 bps in March Odds >15% by February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$108.16
'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?backed No change · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+25.8%+$43.54
Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 30% on December 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+63.7%+$250.45
Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 25% on December 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+143.6%+$199.78
Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+31.6%+$24
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$53
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+104.4%+$59.6
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+31.5%+$24.13
Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$91.8
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+72.8%+$59
Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$139.58
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$360
Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$18.43
Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT2462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.9
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.07
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.68
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$744Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$518.28
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$97.8
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$401Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$133.24
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.51
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$34.7
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,547Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$473.57
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$609Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+27.3%+$166.35
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+36.5%+$189.89
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+49%+$184.1
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+106.6%+$102.94
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+37%+$10.8
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+40.8%+$29
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$148.76
Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+56.9%+$10.03
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+73.7%+$14.73
Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+150%+$15
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.91
Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.55
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.43
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+66.1%+$31.88
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.4
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+28.1%+$87.82
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+81.8%+$328.54
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+25.9%+$65.77
Will Trump and Mamdani not shake hands on November 21 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+28.7%+$26
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+35%+$124.79
Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?backed House · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$15.34
Will fewer than 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$138.47
Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.8
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+76%+$13.35
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$130.58
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.5
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$18.15
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.48
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2025, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.82
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+37%+$5.4
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+78.6%+$11.04
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$19.28
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+25.8%+$5.93
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+112.8%+$21.2
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+25%+$31.98
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+25%+$4
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST+38.9%+$12.71
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$36.11
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+33.5%+$7.82
All 11 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+102.5%+$506.22
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$175.28
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+165.7%+$170.31
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+64%+$136.6
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.62
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.5%+$35.13
Will Solana dip to $60 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+30%+$11.55
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$601Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+42.4%+$255.04
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$74
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$51
All 11 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CXMT IPO by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.8
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$806Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$805.99
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,372Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,372.46
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.07
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.94
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.25B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+197.6%+$243.01
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$7.65
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$591Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$416.37
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+30%+$23.1
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.61
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+62%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M and 75M views in its first 7 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+35.5%+$17.04
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+39.5%+$16.17
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125M and 150M views in its first 7 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+27.2%+$158.65
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+280.7%+$298.83
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12.16
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+122.2%+$77
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less than 30 million views on day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$441Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+28.9%+$127.17
All 7 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+38.9%+$34.45
Will Chelsea win the 2025 UEFA Conference League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$20.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight end in Round 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+25.3%+$138.29
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2backed Usyk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+30.2%+$39.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+83.8%+$43.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$11.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magnus Carlsen wins both World Rapid & Blitz Championships?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$101.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.