TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

AI · resolved market

Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,789
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,789 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01d6…01cbbacked No4c1,987$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc823…528abacked No4c1,513$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No16c1,334$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.953718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be1…3feabacked No5c840$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+400%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes77c734.1$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.099040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No23c680.19$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.245832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes76c651.41$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.193855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No25c535.89$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.612927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdb6…0923backed No5c465.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbe…65c8backed Yes57c440.69$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb8…b577backed Yes79c424.52$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Yes48c412.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No26c315.03$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3815452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed No16c287.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.542910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed Yes70c266.93$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.111566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No61c261.72$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.036334.9%22 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No30c258.19$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.181,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No36c237.91$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4689417.1%153 W · 741 L-145.2wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked No11c236.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.67911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x231f…8621backed No24c232.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes50c225.11$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes57c222.13$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.94977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+72.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No20c207.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7720148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdad…885dbacked Yes76c192.58$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.03366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d3…acf8backed No16c186.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes72c173.11$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.313971.9%100 W · 39 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…9b59backed Yes52c170.25$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.24728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed Yes61c162.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.94757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes63c157.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x107f…505cbacked Yes10c146.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+421.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x880c…de6fbacked Yes64c145.66$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed No52c132.24$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.014755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb5d…c819backed Yes71c127.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16fa…6d0dbacked No56c126.21$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…ca94backed Yes69c125.55$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.341540%6 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b7…5cafbacked Yes70c120.82$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a0…8b02backed Yes79c114.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.64475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3083…f85cbacked Yes56c113.46$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked No47c111.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No51c106.49$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x598f…a2c6backed No38c105.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3400…14eebacked No47c101.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes33c99.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+63%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No20c95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5720544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b4c…56bdbacked Yes54c93.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No22c90.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.265250%26 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29f6…6448backed Yes45c89.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No30c88.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.214355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe765…603cbacked Yes58c86.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes78c82.11$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.393966.7%26 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+44.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xebd3…a2a0backed Yes25c80.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+155.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac31…a0e6backed No39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No25c78.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.957824.4%19 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x173a…b0dcbacked Yes42c77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f5…10a5backed No58c77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb34b…95a7backed No48c75.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No42c71.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.524944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e6…be37backed No48c68.59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes40c63.95$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2817350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9677…116fbacked Yes66c63.83$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0424…cba8backed No40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc2…ef2fbacked No58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e32…6d89backed No58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8c…28f0backed Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6282…3ea8backed No58c59.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.543050%15 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b36…473bbacked No67c57.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No27c52.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.288247.6%39 W · 43 L+19.9wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+108.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x0f8b…350bbacked Yes67c50.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d93…9ed1backed Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No21c49.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.455119.6%10 W · 41 L-6.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes69c48.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0319337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes32c48.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+53.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03b3…9f46backed Yes51c45.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc503…b82cbacked Yes37c42.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Yes49c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.581353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6e…c795backed Yes67c41.36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No32c38.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.068720.7%18 W · 69 L-19.3wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-64.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x01f8…7abdbacked Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.04837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No51c35.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x745d…4956backed No42c34.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ede…fa9fbacked Yes60c33.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4c…3376backed Yes62c32.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…88d7backed Yes64c31.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.153100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3adc…972dbacked Yes64c30.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d8…840dbacked No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bac…88d1backed Yes43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.731752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked Yes63c28.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.291090%9 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick70cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05cd…0291backed Yes72c27.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…758abacked Yes72c25.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.55813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.413422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9b…fbe5backed Yes65c18.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes66c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.123020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-54%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3624…0d46backed Yes73c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.