AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb10679e825c8ed7e8f950b76ee18e595a935a799bc10ab9870fd10dd5d7844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 11c | 1,767$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.23 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 935.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…473bbacked Yes | 64c | 922.37$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 789.66$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…e220backed Yes | 24c | 593.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…b577backed Yes | 54c | 449.17$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…1f12backed Yes | 33c | 376.04$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 348.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 308.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 20c | 297.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…8621backed Yes | 36c | 279.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 39c | 270$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa503…1f64backed Yes | 34c | 267.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 29c | 264.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5d…c819backed Yes | 34c | 209$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…512cbacked Yes | 26c | 208.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ff…482bbacked Yes | 9c | 207.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 68c | 181.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…9ed1backed Yes | 20c | 181.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ab…0a9bbacked Yes | 12c | 152.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…0330backed Yes | 9c | 139.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…af34backed Yes | 12c | 134.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…1e8bbacked Yes | 48c | 105.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…cba8backed Yes | 32c | 79.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 73.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes | 28c | 64.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 49.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 44c | 49.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…cab2backed Yes | 37c | 40.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…7e83backed No | 74c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 67c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on January 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $620b and $630b on January 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $630b and $640b on January 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $640b and $650b on January 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $650b and $660b on January 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $620b on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.