TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa3b4…2a97

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
425
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: AI, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category AI at 62 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT5831%18 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.6
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$52
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+132.6%+$136.8
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Will Kleber Mendonça Filho be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+143.9%+$147.5
Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$61.6
Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$46
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$90
Will Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+1,438.5%+$186
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+108.3%+$38.99
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$114.41
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.14
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.2
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$188.72
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$56.55
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+222.6%+$69
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+277.4%+$293.98
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$105.83
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$53
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 115m and 129m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.3
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$24.5
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+31.6%+$24
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+46%+$188.99
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$189
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$298.65
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$138
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$76
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$107
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$686Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$685.55
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$124.04
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$704Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$704
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$128
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$230.93
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$11
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,549Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+119.2%+$4,230.69
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+32.2%+$119.25
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+28.2%+$66
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+56.3%+$54
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+34%+$104.14
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$59
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$53.2
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.2
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5343.4%23 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+73.7%+$80.6
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+209.6%+$338.5
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$153
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+37%+$54
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$763Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+26.9%+$205.63
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,077Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+28.1%+$863.98
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$76.5
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+56.2%+$82.8
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.81
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$35
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+138.1%+$69.6
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+60.1%+$328.56
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$329.2
Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+203%+$66.99
Will between 290 and 299 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$529Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+58.7%+$310.8
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT4228.6%12 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+3,348.3%+$388.39
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.85
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.6
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+110.5%+$209.98
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$68
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$102
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$51.3
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$25.3
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+455.6%+$82
Will NewJeans perform again in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.9
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$64
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$128.2
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$11.1
Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+72.4%+$42
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$96.99
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$24.8
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Cho Tae-yong in jail by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$66
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+81.8%+$45
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT3966.7%26 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+44.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
AI — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$33
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$104
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+111%+$85.42
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$78
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+33.3%+$50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+59.4%+$409.7
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+53.8%+$84
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$66
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.9%+$18.39
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$96
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+809.1%+$195.8
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50.4
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$475Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.9%+$175.2
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+35.1%+$52
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+69.5%+$20.5
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+25%+$40
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+45.6%+$31.3
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$41
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$43
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+89.3%+$278.4
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$601Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+79.6%+$478.8
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST2725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$136.5
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$41.59
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$25.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$617Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$617.1
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50.4
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$102.6
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+334.8%+$223.3
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$47.48
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.58
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+843.4%+$89.4
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.55
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$592Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$592.2
Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,498Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+25%+$625.62
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$1,373.26
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.84
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$129.2
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.23
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.48
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.7
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.34
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT2330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.1%+$50.7
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$927Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+53.8%+$498.89
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$643Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.4%+$227.26
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$973Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$437.09
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+140.4%+$58.4
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$128.4
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$334.04
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+49.6%+$220.75
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+68.9%+$142.76
Fed rate hike in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$51.2
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.4
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.9
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.2
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.3
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.1
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.1
Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.6
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$26.25
All 23 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$130.34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$26
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+233.3%+$70
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.7%+$31.6
Russian strike on Poland by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$458Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$457.68
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$69
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+37.6%+$54.6
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$136
Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$13.6
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+61.3%+$38
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$62
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$72.8
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$5,359Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+149.4%+$8,005.03
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,940Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+42.4%+$2,094.37
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+526.2%+$263.12
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$24.8
All 21 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST1942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+300%+$90
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15.6
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10.1
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 31-32°F on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+230%+$55.95
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$46.03
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+257.1%+$71.98
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$39.22
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+38.7%+$27.7
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+127.3%+$56
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+63.9%+$39
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$29.57
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+150%+$30
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$11.6
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+40.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+118.9%+$25.91
Will Jim McGreevey win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+300%+$75
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$109.99
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+81.1%+$326.8
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+38.3%+$41.55
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+92.3%+$24
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+56.8%+$133.99
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.83
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+132.6%+$136.8
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+30%+$115.5
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.35
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+81.8%+$121.5
All 14 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+63.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Venezuela coup attempt by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$22.87
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+81.8%+$90
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$210.11
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$46
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+800.9%+$88.89
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+92.3%+$48
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$434Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+38.2%+$166
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$16.2
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+177.8%+$32
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+49.3%+$10
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$24
All 12 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$56.6
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$9,576Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.9%+$5,640.56
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$101.2
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$48.6
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,360Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$3,868.01
Will Solana reach $200 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.5
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$104
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST70%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Earnings — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$53
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.44
Pistons vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.8
All 3 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+35.1%+$52
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+51.5%+$238
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$18.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kape · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+42.9%+$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.