Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x282f3931da52e88851d857604a8c265bb368ec523b473b00ba24e81d347e0752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,357 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c28…8d4bbacked Yes | 0c | 43,890$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 16,593$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.55 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 22c | 14,922$3,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,294.28 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 29c | 14,842$4,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,255.81 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 32c | 12,985$4,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,101.63 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 32c | 6,641$2,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.63 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…268fbacked Yes | 16c | 6,269$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 60c | 5,707$3,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,282.7 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,645$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.56 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 66c | 5,519$3,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.48 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 25c | 4,778$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.41 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,990$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.6 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 38c | 3,874$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.76 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 21c | 3,159$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.7 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,004$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.19 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…7b89backed Yes | 29c | 2,845$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 18c | 2,688$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.17 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 15c | 2,244$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.87 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,210$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,197$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.3 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 2,133$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 72c | 2,128$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 1c | 1,907$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 27c | 1,749$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.26 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,430$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 23c | 1,389$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 10c | 1,331$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 41c | 1,306$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.95 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,237$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.29 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,235$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 15c | 1,201$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.21 | 210 | 9.5%20 W · 190 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 1,146$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.03 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,100$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 1,100$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.49 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.84 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 18c | 975.46$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.17 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 28c | 952.36$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.98 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed Yes | 7c | 840.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 16c | 814.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 13c | 755.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 23c | 744.31$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.1 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 29c | 700$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 64c | 690.12$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…b962backed Yes | 8c | 638.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 630.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 34c | 628.19$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 20c | 599.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 16c | 599.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…726dbacked Yes | 21c | 587.92$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 525.55$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes | 20c | 522$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 40c | 521.98$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 13c | 497$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6a…168ebacked No | 55c | 480$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…9763backed Yes | 36c | 463.74$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 5c | 454.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed No | 74c | 443.47$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 438.78$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 2c | 423.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 26c | 390$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 385.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 39c | 352.56$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 14c | 348.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 37c | 345$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 25c | 333$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 39c | 315.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed Yes | 36c | 305.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 72c | 302.14$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.77 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed No | 62c | 275.57$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 31c | 271.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 58c | 266.38$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…613abacked Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 255$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 39c | 250$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…1c5bbacked Yes | 23c | 242.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 22c | 230.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 66c | 212$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 20c | 206$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Yes | 47c | 202.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…7bc5backed Yes | 20c | 198.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 10c | 198.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…309abacked Yes | 26c | 190$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…f426backed Yes | 36c | 189.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…0fd5backed Yes | 26c | 186.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…6d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 180$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 78c | 173$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3766…abecbacked Yes | 31c | 167.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…44b3backed Yes | 26c | 164.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 25c | 160.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…da0fbacked Yes | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Yes | 16c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 13c | 143.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 143.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 142.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.