Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c93a3a87c7071795fe6124e77822cb57953dc0daac45c0c3d90db3f56997263
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,506 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 65c | 12,892$8,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,530.04 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 42c | 10,615$4,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,171.17 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 55c | 9,884$5,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,472.02 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 0c | 9,392$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 48c | 7,548$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,946.31 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…77c1backed Yes | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 69c | 4,960$3,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.29 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 9c | 4,215$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.41 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 71c | 4,002$2,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.36 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 50c | 3,838$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.92 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 50c | 2,793$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.67 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed Yes | 16c | 2,016$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +281%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…35cebacked Yes | 45c | 1,961$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,891$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.63 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 42c | 1,471$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.27 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 29c | 1,395$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.25 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,336$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.71 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,307$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 37c | 1,274$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.57 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 31c | 1,264$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.95 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 78c | 1,218$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,192$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.67 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 53c | 1,192$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.05 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,163$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.93 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 63c | 1,121$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.01 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…7b89backed Yes | 58c | 1,091$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,066$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.7 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 15c | 1,040$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.87 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 38c | 1,000$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.56 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 53c | 823.78$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.09 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 809.15$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.31 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 694.24$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 46c | 613.91$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.23 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 468.53$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.08 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 46c | 458.9$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.75 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 55c | 450$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 32c | 447.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.37 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 43c | 446.07$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.19 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 45c | 445$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes | 47c | 420.96$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 58c | 415.85$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 48c | 409.77$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 70c | 404.44$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.64 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153c…3759backed No | 37c | 402.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 26c | 399.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 395.42$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.77 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 16c | 393$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.4 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1d…7b71backed No | 25c | 381.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 56c | 379.76$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed No | 16c | 345.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 57c | 345$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 18c | 340$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 9c | 332.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 330.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.14 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked No | 70c | 328$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.58 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed Yes | 33c | 326.81$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 40c | 322$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.88 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 21c | 318.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.56 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 37c | 305.21$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 50c | 303.85$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked Yes | 37c | 263.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 52c | 262$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 16c | 260$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 255$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 254.12$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…6d2ebacked No | 27c | 250.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x280e…3238backed No | 50c | 250.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…726dbacked Yes | 70c | 244.72$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 38c | 232$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…0fd5backed Yes | 45c | 221.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 37c | 220$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 47c | 219.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked No | 38c | 213.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 78c | 205.41$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 47c | 199.96$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 196.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…2605backed No | 30c | 191$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…ab09backed Yes | 18c | 190$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed Yes | 66c | 186$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 25c | 184.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…18d6backed Yes | 73c | 182$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 55c | 181.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…735abacked No | 59c | 174.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 43c | 174.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 46c | 166.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 8c | 163.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 71c | 158.44$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 156.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…3920backed No | 59c | 151.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 45c | 148.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…afa8backed Yes | 43c | 143.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 73c | 142.74$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.