Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa322f513376bd21b50aaacdea8a36385fd5596d85c8ca87697a11f38ff4ccc7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,597 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 1c | 13,205$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 12,191$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 1c | 9,912$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…268fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,628$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 2c | 3,406$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,022$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,002$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 5c | 1,822$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,765$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,610$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 3c | 1,578$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,528$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,218$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,011$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,010$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…702dbacked Yes | 11c | 959.15$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 874.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b26…6d09backed Yes | 5c | 773.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Yes | 6c | 739.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes | 10c | 620$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 4c | 588.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 10c | 517.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed Yes | 17c | 440.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 13c | 421.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…0f57backed Yes | 11c | 378.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…7bc5backed Yes | 7c | 372.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 359.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 331.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 13c | 305$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 299.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…e4d5backed Yes | 8c | 294.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 18c | 226.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 9c | 108.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3637backed Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…6d9ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.