Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3e1d33a439aa1ba4c46a46cd89b5d4daeed84138e06642f1c472637b0b81492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,382 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c28…8d4bbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 17c | 14,961$2,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592.07 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 14,611$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…042ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,364$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,621$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 20c | 8,382$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.49 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 12c | 6,609$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.72 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked Yes | 4c | 6,226$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 17c | 4,080$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.81 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…106cbacked No | 79c | 4,060$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 2,884$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.65 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,835$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.73 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,147$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.88 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,914$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,797$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 1c | 1,665$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,647$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,613$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,430$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,326$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.46 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 14c | 1,076$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 5c | 1,070$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,068$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.16 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,032$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…229abacked Yes | 26c | 755.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 14c | 753.07$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 717.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 12c | 701.27$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 18c | 700$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 694.92$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 9c | 681.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 18c | 659.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 79c | 625.38$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 9c | 616.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 25c | 569.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 515.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…f095backed Yes | 3c | 471.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 7c | 358.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 293.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 10c | 272.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0053…315dbacked Yes | 19c | 268.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 227.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…763fbacked Yes | 23c | 213.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 8c | 209.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 24c | 205.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…e43dbacked Yes | 20c | 201$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 9c | 196.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…2ac1backed Yes | 19c | 184.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 153.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…c442backed Yes | 15c | 136.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 69c | 133.49$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 14c | 128.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 128.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…cbcdbacked Yes | 18c | 127.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 73c | 122.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 117.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 13c | 116.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…dd65backed Yes | 20c | 98.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 84.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…43d0backed Yes | 19c | 82.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 60.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 77c | 57.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed No | 68c | 31.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…0d49backed No | 80c | 30.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…fc01backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.