Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcac7ecc352ac226e70f21eeb919ae84e7684ca9ae76b3460a239169a4019ce51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,093 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 13,908$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,416$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.79 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…268fbacked Yes | 7c | 5,844$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 4c | 3,547$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 3,226$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,018$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.81 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 4c | 3,007$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,880$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,718$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.23 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,615$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,474$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.62 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes | 4c | 2,293$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,261$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 2,250$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.83 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 10c | 1,938$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.03 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,675$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,665$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.88 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,611$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,490$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 12c | 1,341$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 1,300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 1c | 1,251$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…726dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 6c | 1,064$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 915.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…702dbacked Yes | 24c | 820.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…f074backed Yes | 3c | 741.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 18c | 720.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 6c | 626.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 9c | 607.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 554.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 17c | 540.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…7bc5backed Yes | 7c | 515.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d34…9da0backed No | 78c | 370$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13df…1e2bbacked Yes | 22c | 370$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 357.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6201…53c5backed Yes | 10c | 343.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 5c | 335.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 14c | 319.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 8c | 314.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 4c | 309.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…6d2ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 6c | 285.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 8c | 279.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 9c | 258.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed Yes | 6c | 253.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 10c | 252.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…c914backed Yes | 6c | 248.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…ced4backed Yes | 16c | 222.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c4…5114backed Yes | 9c | 174.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 12c | 165.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Yes | 12c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 151.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed No | 80c | 146.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 78c | 135.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 16c | 135.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…6d9ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 12c | 96.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…ceeabacked Yes | 12c | 91.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 19c | 74.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 20c | 72.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed Yes | 21c | 70.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 19c | 67.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…2ac1backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 19c | 55.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed No | 80c | 20.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.