Movies · resolved market

Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7421e6d068e9c23432511946881037f919721445794b83d09c392dcbb51e395

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,310

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,310 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6c28…8d4bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	14,279$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.56	328	14.9%49 W · 279 L	+14.2wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	10,852$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed Yes	15c	6,581$1,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.41	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	31cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes	19c	4,242$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$786.23	297	35.7%106 W · 191 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes	5c	4,034$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.42	126	31%39 W · 87 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4113…042ebacked Yes	1c	4,030$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	3,478$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.77	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-57%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes	10c	3,431$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.94	233	21.5%50 W · 183 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes	2c	3,283$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.83	138	20.3%28 W · 110 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes	19c	2,230$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.26	236	39.8%94 W · 142 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	9c	1,804$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.3	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+3.1wins	+0.15per pick	14cpaid	+79.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes	10c	1,600$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.1	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	6c	1,592$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.92	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes	7c	1,484$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-4.6wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	16c	1,368$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.74	260	41.2%107 W · 153 L	+15.4wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,305$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.54	210	9.5%20 W · 190 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	1,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes	5c	1,198$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.91	294	23.5%69 W · 225 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-43%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes	18c	1,183$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.27	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	1,035$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.22	1,393	8%111 W · 1,282 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes	15c	978.34$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.58	177	51.4%91 W · 86 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…6069backed Yes	17c	960.63$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.3	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	+3.6wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8483…6d2ebacked Yes	6c	948.7$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.53	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes	6c	860.7$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.76	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes	17c	856.22$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.63	285	24.2%69 W · 216 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes	7c	817.21$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.37	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.1wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes	18c	768.67$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.82	264	31.1%82 W · 182 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes	14c	726.69$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.7	94	34%32 W · 62 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a52…3e04backed Yes	9c	669.89$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.35	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes	16c	590$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.72	151	49%74 W · 77 L	+10.6wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3ab…300abacked Yes	8c	551.89$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.46	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	-22%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	13c	491.3$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.25	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	7c	412.32$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.14	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	2c	411.49$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	123	1.6%2 W · 121 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x159e…050ebacked Yes	19c	400.15$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.64	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	398.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.19	39	0%0 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes	20c	389.91$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.7	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95bb…3e98backed Yes	3c	380.48$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	370.04$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.22	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes	12c	361.35$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.56	105	44.8%47 W · 58 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f7…f566backed Yes	7c	350$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.53	55	72.7%40 W · 15 L	+10.8wins	+0.20per pick	53cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	15c	317.89$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	231	30.3%70 W · 161 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes	10c	313.98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	105	37.1%39 W · 66 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yes	11c	281.89$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.91	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes	5c	260.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.03	134	40.3%54 W · 80 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes	14c	250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	116	25.9%30 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes	10c	248$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.97	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	205.58$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0645…f095backed Yes	7c	202.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	473	28.3%134 W · 339 L	-32.8wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed Yes	8c	181.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb526…613abacked Yes	21c	180.89$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	18cpaid	+160.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x610d…6c37backed Yes	10c	164.32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6245…2ac1backed Yes	16c	157$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	29cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes	17c	153.89$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d5…726dbacked Yes	21c	150$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.56	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-47%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4de…3920backed Yes	24c	138.89$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.68	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes	16c	127.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.83	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x498f…ec61backed Yes	10c	125.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ffd…f074backed Yes	9c	123.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	12c	120.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	160	15.6%25 W · 135 L	-26.1wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes	16c	111.93$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Yes	14c	108.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes	20c	101.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	195	32.8%64 W · 131 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes	16c	96.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3165…6bc4backed Yes	18c	94.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	25c	90$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.15	51	23.5%12 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba7…0d63backed Yes	17c	76.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5b…0037backed No	78c	49.4$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x396c…56adbacked Yes	24c	47.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed No	74c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.68	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?this page
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?No won
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?No won
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?No won
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?No won
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?No won
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?No won
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?Yes won
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?No won
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event