TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x60fd…89a9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
939
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Movies at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 371 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.85
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+1,050.2%+$597.25
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.13
Tucker Carlson federally charged?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.85
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.15
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.22
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.02
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.38
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,229.85
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.68
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.26
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.08
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+4,293.6%+$6,310.72
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.17
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.14
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.04
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.64
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.35
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.93
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.13
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.41
Showing 25 of 371 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 135 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.05
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.24
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.96
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.11
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.45
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.62
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.84
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.15
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$348.81
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$411.26
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$270.15
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.77
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.02
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.53
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.3
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$513.37
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.66
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.07
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.76
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.95
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Showing 25 of 135 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 123 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.13
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.21
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.39
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.87
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.75
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.91
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.41
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.88
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.6
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.6
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.05
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.62
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.33
Showing 25 of 123 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.16
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.54
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.98
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.82
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.23
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.06
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.65
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.52
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.63
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$450.71
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.56
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$482.54
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,146.23
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$446Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$445.56
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.83
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.62
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.47
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.07
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$650.01
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,073Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,073.5
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.02
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.22
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$619Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$619.35
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$845Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$845.37
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT440%0 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$194
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.72
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.91
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$477.04
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.4
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.6
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$673Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$672.74
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$861Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$860.71
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$639Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$638.98
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$312.2
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.38
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.92
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.84
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.89
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.81
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$270.41
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$364.07
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.08
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.88
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.36
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.37
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.96
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.34
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$988Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$987.81
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.79
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.28
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.13
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.47
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$586Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$585.57
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.72
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.08
Will Putin visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.89
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$697Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,059.7%+$7,385
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$756Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$755.99
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.33
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.32
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.76
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$644Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$643.84
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.05
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.1
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.86
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.6
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.15
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.46
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.2
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.85
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.47
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.45
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+1,566.7%+$329
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.15
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.41
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.78
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.4
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.37
Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.1
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$368.71
U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+920.4%+$180.4
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.8
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT3910.3%4 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.65
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.28
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.26
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$126.68
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.65
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+1,026.8%+$1,457.67
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.43
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.9
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.93
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.16
Will Sophia Brink advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.62
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.75
Will James Clark be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+1,500.5%+$331.15
Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Cory Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Jersey?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.37
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.85
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.32
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.71
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,114.16
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.52
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.05
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.91
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.68
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$372
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+5,294.4%+$1,708.19
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.4
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.75
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.4
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.8
Will Trump Leave China on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.07
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.35
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.92
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.03
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.55
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.9
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.2
Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.16
Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.02
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.11
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.93
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Anthropic CEO arrested?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.17
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.43
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.85
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.96
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.07
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.93
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.13
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.05
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$24.3
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16.45
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+1,036.4%+$273.6
All 18 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-20.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.97
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.23
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+1,095.4%+$1,050.43
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 400M by June 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.1
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.8
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.76
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.13
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.27
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.34
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.85
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.9
Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$43.8
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$16.51
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.22
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.01
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.