TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,301 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes8c15,635$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.676943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Yes0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes8c12,637$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.3712234.4%42 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes8c7,631$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.31425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357c…7dfebacked Yes5c6,878$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.491233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+813.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes14c5,150$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.132642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes7c5,026$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.52728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes8c5,000$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.991145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+165.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x847e…9218backed Yes6c3,607$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.83728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-61.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c09…3fd2backed Yes12c3,459$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.88616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+134.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3f…fec2backed Yes6c3,347$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.27944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c2,703$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.98695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c2,131$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.46583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes10c2,072$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.621926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3001…d5c3backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fac…2f27backed Yes8c1,853$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-76.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes10c1,604$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.571631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,385$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.03664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes8c1,375$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c1,250$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.841074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914a…920fbacked Yes4c1,136$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes8c1,121$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.323917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes10c1,041$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,017$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.364629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e36…6215backed Yes2c951.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes7c893.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.482020%4 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287a…6283backed Yes3c858.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes6c854.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ba…73a2backed Yes3c800.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes8c772.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.561625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes13c742.39$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.711526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c709.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde4d…df45backed Yes4c688.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes7c664$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.331315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-58.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f39…7a21backed Yes6c657.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b9…9e66backed Yes3c647.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes8c642.38$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.25131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe1…6c98backed Yes17c599.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1960%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes11c598.02$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.143020%6 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c47…882abacked Yes9c581.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes4c550$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.121546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes14c537.01$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.832433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a0…db2ebacked Yes6c525.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes7c520$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.15812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes3c508.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.05156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-80.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes2c493.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes12c444.41$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.33520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7c…df7fbacked Yes11c444.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd761…9c18backed Yes4c437.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…a1f1backed Yes10c435.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes9c427.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.94933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes7c427.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.511428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ca…d09cbacked Yes6c417.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a3…a4e1backed Yes16c413.26$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes4c371.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.38137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+698%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c363.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.04378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1a…ebcebacked Yes11c355.09$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff44…fa58backed Yes13c346.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-73%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7dd…f4e0backed Yes15c331.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+83%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x615f…5f37backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+241.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab0…9578backed Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c79…0ad2backed Yes6c299.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes15c285.38$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.751625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f6…98e4backed Yes5c280.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa78c…2fcabacked Yes4c272.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes12c270$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.172231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes16c248.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.158923.6%21 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes21c235.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.941030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48f…2132backed Yes6c233.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes8c220.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes10c215.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8328…fe31backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…639fbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10e8…fdaabacked Yes14c200$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4f…f2a1backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x313f…e8a5backed Yes7c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6316…6bbabacked Yes11c186.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff3…531dbacked Yes17c174.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab3…a9c2backed Yes17c152.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x263d…fc4cbacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f21…b935backed Yes17c143.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91c7…b70bbacked Yes17c143.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5632…8d9bbacked Yes9c129.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes8c125.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes8c121.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.148128.4%23 W · 58 L-10.7wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb403…5c40backed Yes17c119.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes13c115.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes17c113.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…951abacked Yes15c108.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd1…1da0backed Yes14c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9b…705bbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…1dc4backed Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeacf…3c55backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9a…f6e9backed Yes17c82.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.941030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes17c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.931752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x921d…efb8backed No77c78.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bee…768cbacked Yes15c69.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1d…d738backed Yes28c64.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.