TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$142,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,164 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes8c12,337$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.6312234.4%42 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes3c5,647$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.353917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc487…fd90backed Yes3c4,239$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c4,205$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.12583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0e…830cbacked Yes2c4,184$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b200backed Yes5c4,112$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x19a2…8601backed Yes7c3,692$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes1c3,375$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes8c2,757$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.58260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes5c2,627$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.727121.1%15 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ea…95cebacked Yes2c2,547$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fac…2f27backed Yes14c2,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-76.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c2,187$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.23695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x571e…6870backed Yes35c2,114$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes7c2,106$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.473020%6 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,989$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.174629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd761…9c18backed Yes1c1,885$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e10…c984backed Yes6c1,811$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes16c1,538$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.761631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes6c1,523$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes16c1,512$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.021926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Yes7c1,434$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c1,414$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.11074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ad…7246backed Yes1c1,412$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dda…df45backed Yes11c1,387$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4377…1764backed Yes4c1,345$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…97b6backed Yes8c1,288$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3001…d5c3backed Yes1c1,279$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.62520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd55c…d703backed Yes4c1,208$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x287a…6283backed Yes2c1,199$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…449fbacked Yes8c1,184$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0e…1765backed Yes2c1,167$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x137f…9723backed Yes2c1,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c1,050$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.49378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f9…86ddbacked Yes14c1,043$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde4d…df45backed Yes3c1,042$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes20c1,039$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.071163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes5c1,011$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.311225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81b7…d59fbacked Yes6c985.15$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes11c972.04$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes11c925.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c894.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8cb…81c6backed Yes17c870.66$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f99…3eb1backed Yes8c866.25$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes15c862.68$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.731315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-58.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f3…4decbacked Yes4c861.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0a3…a4e1backed Yes10c859.69$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes21c828.81$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7414661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75c4…19cbbacked Yes12c783.73$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes14c778.39$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.97540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4948…c29ebacked Yes24c762.38$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b9…9e66backed Yes2c753.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes17c752.77$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.971526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x217f…d713backed Yes1c748.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes10c728.3$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.187844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1115…a3edbacked Yes21c716.53$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f6…98e4backed Yes3c690.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60c3…2953backed Yes5c650.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e7…e2d9backed Yes3c641.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ea…127cbacked Yes8c604.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x615f…5f37backed Yes3c595.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+241.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No79c590.83$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.191625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No79c540$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.65683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+90.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e36…6215backed Yes5c517.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes3c512.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.79156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-80.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0a…7858backed Yes5c500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f9…cf1abacked Yes6c499.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.17540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42c…17fdbacked Yes9c484.65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6404…e7e5backed Yes6c475.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21b…e07abacked Yes2c460.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf019…e3e5backed Yes16c459.63$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes14c434.77$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22c4…9b79backed Yes10c429.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+475.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a08…47afbacked Yes5c411.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62b3…4849backed Yes17c399.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f39…7a21backed Yes5c377.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa9b…c3f9backed Yes4c361.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a4…d93dbacked Yes5c348.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9a…f6e9backed Yes20c336.04$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.541030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes15c330.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes5c329.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152524%6 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48ec…fdb6backed Yes9c299.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc40…4ce9backed Yes17c295.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…1e3bbacked Yes4c286$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8352…f2ccbacked Yes11c272.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76b…873cbacked Yes11c266.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b38…6366backed Yes6c262.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Yes16c257.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a84…e0d5backed Yes20c249.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b9f…d218backed Yes5c242.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes5c240.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e4e…a985backed Yes7c239.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…d386backed Yes11c234.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes10c233.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.291030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes9c206.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.256544.6%29 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x088d…82f9backed Yes10c205$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb4f…f2a1backed Yes18c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239d…f8a5backed Yes21c200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-69.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa65…0133backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d66…928fbacked No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.