Music · resolved market
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7341fca1e19bcf27fb8c94f091587d571944bb738f7529254674af7b8afe1e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 19,563$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.3 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 9,417$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +202.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…3fd2backed Yes | 11c | 9,130$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…df45backed Yes | 1c | 6,839$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked Yes | 1c | 6,691$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +813.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa91b…56ddbacked Yes | 3c | 3,681$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…9218backed Yes | 3c | 3,588$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…742dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ba…73a2backed Yes | 1c | 3,274$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,829$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 4c | 2,828$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 5c | 2,820$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,578$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 5c | 2,563$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 4c | 2,087$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,697$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…882abacked Yes | 3c | 1,692$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 1,680$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,569$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,537$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,489$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 8c | 1,460$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…6283backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…948ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,119$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,083$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,062$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…d5c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 4c | 1,005$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 9c | 999.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 771.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 5c | 751.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f6…98e4backed Yes | 4c | 727.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes | 9c | 690.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 682.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 4c | 649.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 516.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 7c | 511.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100f…5157backed Yes | 2c | 503.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 2c | 488.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +241.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed Yes | 2c | 446.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…d65cbacked Yes | 5c | 403.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…7a21backed Yes | 2c | 403.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…a1f1backed Yes | 4c | 397.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 376.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 5c | 364.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed Yes | 10c | 257.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…fa58backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 55c | 244.16$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 75c | 242.37$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…9b79backed Yes | 8c | 218.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…1845backed Yes | 5c | 214.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd200…9456backed Yes | 8c | 179.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 179.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 9c | 170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 6c | 166.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 11c | 160.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…d019backed Yes | 10c | 125.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 13c | 102.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?this page
- Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?No won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?No won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?Yes won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?No won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?No won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.