TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,237
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$266,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,237 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes66c40,463$26,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,754.86943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed No0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes38c13,065$4,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,150.582642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes54c13,063$7,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,007.3212234.4%42 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No51c7,597$3,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,886.282166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+128.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No58c6,425$3,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,697.941963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No32c6,249$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.687121.1%15 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1201…924abacked No47c6,095$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c5,700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c4,983$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.46583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes24c3,907$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,967.961163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No46c3,826$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.675131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes44c3,355$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.314661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No18c2,951$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.433644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No53c2,909$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.493754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes24c2,812$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146.89728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0d…5866backed Yes45c2,806$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c2,639$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.4416334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes78c2,411$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No61c2,342$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d3f…fec2backed No13c2,317$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Yes50c2,000$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes21c2,000$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.31145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+165.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b5f…18dabacked Yes78c1,875$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No45c1,842$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.062161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No4c1,645$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.73339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes55c1,456$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.323020%6 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f2…e1dcbacked Yes67c1,394$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No50c1,379$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.571090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+44.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c1,339$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.573956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19a2…8601backed Yes16c1,253$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.23425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes21c1,244$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.411926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fac…2f27backed No76c1,200$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-76.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No25c1,187$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.623357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No16c1,150$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+525%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0050…ed47backed No14c1,145$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No42c1,135$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.714161%25 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ab0…9578backed No59c1,067$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.4940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfac2…f35fbacked No46c1,052$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c943$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.593961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No66c892.09$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.133447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c839.07$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.863759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3fd…22c7backed Yes55c822.27$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No28c815.61$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.08955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes23c807.97$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.931631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes59c805.87$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3315349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No31c800$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.61338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No22c800$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.852263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+61.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No61c799.99$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.392927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No14c722.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6bb…a47fbacked Yes71c675.48$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes18c672.21$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.11526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes36c666$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-7.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…9f6abacked No45c614.12$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1be…3a18backed No49c595.74$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299c…7e23backed Yes67c589.15$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No44c576.27$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No60c571$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.961735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef1f…5868backed No9c545.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.65812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x728d…f7e6backed No78c516.32$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80de…2e87backed Yes44c488.21$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.61977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed No20c450$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked No20c450$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0a…e1d4backed No76c446.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6349…6713backed No68c436.12$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-64.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf4…9359backed Yes21c422.09$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+134.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Yes24c421.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+110.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…47e0backed No48c418.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No40c413.05$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ec…e521backed Yes63c410.9$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab3…a9c2backed Yes26c410.69$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes22c409.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.011145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf85d…5331backed No24c403$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No80c401$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.61233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e0…bfdfbacked Yes53c400$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No6c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebe…287cbacked Yes53c400$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf60a…ee1cbacked No62c400$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7522…8afdbacked No79c398.35$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No55c393.51$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.821973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfeea…672cbacked No61c371.18$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ca…d09cbacked Yes24c370.41$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No55c361.89$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.721625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f9…86ddbacked Yes55c361$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed No58c359.38$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a0…db2ebacked Yes52c350.47$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No75c342.92$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.833158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Yes54c340$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9a…f6e9backed Yes19c337.23$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.161030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b7…d59fbacked Yes23c334.15$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde4d…df45backed No19c323.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes74c319.77$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.031546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaaf0…9ef6backed No61c318.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebd…e0cabacked No16c316.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3004…3df7backed Yes54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb70…0854backed Yes23c300$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+154.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf088…00b7backed No78c300$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed Yes56c300$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…3365backed No62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1748…5e9ebacked Yes24c299.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+110.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.