TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x215a…254c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,411
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 61 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT36634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 366 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.11
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.75
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.19
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.65
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$671Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$316.3
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.56
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.48
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.85
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.97
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.39
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.44
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$607Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$356.5
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.03
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.05
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.95
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$199.99
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.07
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$427.12
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+196.6%+$660.43
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.97
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.14
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.34
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.04
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.69
Showing 25 of 366 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT27024.4%66 W · 204 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 270 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+412.8%+$100
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.52
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.74
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.83
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.78
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.43
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.51
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$500
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.66
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+40.9%+$52.38
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.6
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+3,431.2%+$1,035.22
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.5
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.43
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.24
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$696Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$390
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.56
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$100
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$505Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$504.7
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.76
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.37
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.74
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.89
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.95
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.82
Showing 25 of 270 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT13422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 134 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$100
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+259.7%+$28.92
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.75
Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.15
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.49
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.93
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$332.18
Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.02
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.31
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$680Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$680.06
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.15
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$322.58
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.94
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.63
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$35.96
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.4
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$385.78
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.58
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.03
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$837Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$837.02
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$488.64
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$100
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.2
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.47
Showing 25 of 134 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT11032.7%36 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 110 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$191.31
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+251.4%+$750
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+163.9%+$438.28
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+251.4%+$639.15
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$606Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$605.59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+152.9%+$620.47
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+1,328.1%+$533.29
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+72.1%+$291.9
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.84
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$661Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$660.65
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,744Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$2,972.03
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,355Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$1,867.9
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.25
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$50
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.28
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+217.5%+$50
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+279.8%+$149.26
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,547Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,546.53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$684Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$684.21
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.74
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.71
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$344.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.24
Showing 25 of 110 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT10139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 101 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Tires: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+1,117.6%+$407.39
Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.42
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$24.46
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$529.48
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.45
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+134.3%+$113.94
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.64
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$613Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$612.76
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.83
Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$425.87
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.47
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$45.06
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.36
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 115m and 120m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.39
Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the top global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.39
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.27
Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.76
Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will "Worst Neighbor Ever" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.79
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.46
Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.67
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.42
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+135.3%+$338.66
Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+61%+$50
Showing 25 of 101 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT10038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 100 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will András Baka be the next President of Hungary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.15
Will Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.74
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$303.22
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$865Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$865.06
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.18
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$318.05
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$511Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$300
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+405.6%+$825.2
Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.52
Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.51
Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.78
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.96
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+258.4%+$49.99
Will Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.91
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$100
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$50
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$368.21
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.49
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.25
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.81
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$78.84
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+71%+$212.58
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+55.2%+$306.59
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.71
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,756Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,755.85
Showing 25 of 100 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT6126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.28
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.34
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$285.39
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$638Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$637.54
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+277.3%+$96.5
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,411Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,410.73
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.53
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+114.7%+$577.21
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+169.6%+$174.66
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.89
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.25
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$194.4
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.76
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.7
Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.7
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$874Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$874.37
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$50
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$50
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$50
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.58
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,463Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$955.05
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.15
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.91
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.18
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.92
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT5046%23 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.81
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+57.9%+$22
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+47.1%+$6.4
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$4
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$62.07
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+46%+$17.3
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+72.4%+$8.4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.59
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+54.9%+$13.86
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35-36°F on February 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on January 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+73%+$21.1
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$12.92
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.65
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$22.41
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+72.4%+$8.4
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$11.03
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on January 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$14.73
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on January 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+25%+$4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$15.98
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$35.3
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+135.3%+$23
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on January 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11.46
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT4723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.17
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.11
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,096Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$437
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.48
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.37
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,445Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,445.23
Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+482.4%+$843.82
Will Johnny Garrett be the TN-06 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.11
Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.24
Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.77
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+374.6%+$999.99
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.14
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.4
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$100
Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.41
Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$108.35
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.25
Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.86
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$49.99
Will Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.59
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.31
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$60.83
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,954Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+112.6%+$2,200
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT4447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+91%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+2,091.4%+$789.36
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.44
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+2,120.9%+$999.99
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$286.89
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$30.66
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+56%+$150
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.65
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.92
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+467.8%+$341.56
Will Chuck Schumer vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.07
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.35
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.66
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$4.39
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$44.7
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23.6
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.37
Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+110.5%+$21
Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+124.7%+$22.2
Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$22.8
Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$17.2
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+96.1%+$29.4
Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+77%+$17.4
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Musiclast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT3644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.92
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.69
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$672.3
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.76
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.03
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.54
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.17
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$60.86
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$522Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$522.43
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.06
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$59.44
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+104.8%+$358.2
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.5
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$33.14
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.78
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+154.1%+$300
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$50
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+203%+$50
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.09
Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$100
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.08
Will Justin Bieber feature Billie Eilish during his Coachella performances?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.7
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.94
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.21
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.7
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$771Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$771
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.94
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.86
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.11
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.85
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.87
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.12
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.27
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.84
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+162.3%+$399.99
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.82
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+351.6%+$389.29
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.98
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.34
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.74
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+103.1%+$79.02
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+180.4%+$298.07
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.75
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$141.69
All 21 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+45.1%+$7.77
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+121.9%+$21.98
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$32.58
Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+37%+$4.05
Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+228%+$22.94
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$44.7
US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+88.7%+$9.4
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+200%+$40
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.3%+$4.16
Will Trump say "Trump Family" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+63.2%+$12.54
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+29.9%+$4.6
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$21.11
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+135%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.91
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.46
Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.18
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.19
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.26
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+1,454.4%+$351.39
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+342.8%+$423.82
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$175
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$12.9
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+203%+$53.6
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$200
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+288%+$449.2
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$50
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+96.1%+$19.69
All 16 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+56.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.29
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+100%+$42.31
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.69
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$73.65
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.71
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+39.7%+$19.9
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+495.8%+$79.05
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+143.3%+$41.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+268%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Stocks — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+111.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+25%+$4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.