Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb4ed668830393ca5918ad91bcd3759a8e6bccca7546b72d57ce503f7df8f523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 13,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,780$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,211$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 44c | 811.81$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.86 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 17c | 608.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…56f0backed Yes | 55c | 572.87$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…b5febacked Yes | 9c | 565.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 30c | 527.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.9 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 64c | 475.59$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.62 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 6c | 465.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 409.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 20c | 316.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 15c | 268.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 266.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 19c | 263.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 259.57$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 51c | 253.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 56c | 237.32$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.37 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 27c | 221.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…0a9ebacked Yes | 66c | 195.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 53c | 188.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365b…9c42backed Yes | 45c | 153$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 61c | 152.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 148.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 43c | 142.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 132.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 123.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 69c | 119.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d2…e592backed No | 52c | 116.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…434fbacked No | 65c | 114.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f54ebacked Yes | 54c | 106.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 42c | 99.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked Yes | 32c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…1119backed Yes | 55c | 90.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 90.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…3f72backed Yes | 19c | 77.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 40c | 69.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 37c | 56.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed No | 38c | 52.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes | 56c | 51.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 56c | 48.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 51c | 46.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 32c | 46.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 57c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 65c | 39.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 50c | 36.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 29c | 36.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 33.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…7576backed Yes | 64c | 32.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c11…1992backed Yes | 55c | 32.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 66c | 31.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 38c | 29.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…738cbacked No | 57c | 27.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 56c | 26.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…9d89backed No | 68c | 25.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…f77fbacked Yes | 63c | 25.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 63c | 24.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7c…f4f7backed Yes | 69c | 24.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 57c | 21.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…e0ecbacked Yes | 58c | 20.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…1829backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf872…841bbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8501…b279backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 68c | 18.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cc…641dbacked Yes | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 16.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes | 76c | 14.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 29°F or below on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.