Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab4e38ebdff8008466dcda15c2e2cd643191c60f22a209c237a6d79443accc3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 1c | 5,110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 0c | 2,052$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 1c | 1,961$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 23c | 1,411$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.83 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 17c | 979.58$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.66 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 44c | 671.85$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.61 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes | 49c | 604.43$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.7 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 9c | 518.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 400$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…56f0backed No | 28c | 392.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 50c | 347.65$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.81 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 330$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 16c | 306.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.62 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes | 78c | 286.77$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 281.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.75 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 9c | 264.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 50c | 240$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 222.15$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 218.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.16 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 62c | 188.96$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed Yes | 45c | 185.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…b5febacked Yes | 34c | 166.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 22c | 162.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.87 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 67c | 152.4$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 10c | 146$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.39 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365b…9c42backed Yes | 50c | 145$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed No | 79c | 143.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 20c | 141.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 29c | 139.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…7789backed Yes | 11c | 135.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 129.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 52c | 127.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 9c | 122$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…7a79backed Yes | 19c | 120$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 15c | 118.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 19c | 111.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 94.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked No | 70c | 93.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 93.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…434fbacked Yes | 49c | 90.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 20c | 87.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a3…5e10backed Yes | 24c | 83.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…971abacked No | 79c | 69.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 67.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 37c | 64.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 60c | 60.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…1fccbacked No | 71c | 60.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…e0ecbacked Yes | 40c | 60.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 60.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5876…793fbacked Yes | 46c | 53.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 27c | 53.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 52.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 36c | 52.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed No | 70c | 52.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f7…274dbacked No | 25c | 52.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 21c | 51.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 22c | 49.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 35c | 47.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 28c | 47.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 28c | 40.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 40c | 37.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…7df6backed Yes | 32c | 32.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 56c | 30.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed No | 77c | 30.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 55c | 29.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 69c | 29.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 55c | 27.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed No | 78c | 23.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 21.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 59c | 20.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c11…1992backed Yes | 80c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed No | 79c | 19.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed Yes | 69c | 18.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 68c | 18.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 76c | 15.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 29°F or below on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.