Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb9bb53f09582cff01e9844c2c7092cfb460922d9f0104ad7d2c14367954c493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 2,110$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 25c | 922.66$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.78 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 917.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…0a9ebacked Yes | 23c | 683.61$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 501.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 9c | 422.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 285.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes | 18c | 231.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 65c | 215$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 16c | 192.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 11c | 191.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 12c | 184.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 182.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 161.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 69c | 159.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 13c | 118.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…76b0backed Yes | 23c | 116$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 93.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 19c | 93.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 15c | 86.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…871cbacked Yes | 14c | 77.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 18c | 74.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 36c | 72.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cab…1d6cbacked Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 24c | 61.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 70c | 57.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 60c | 52.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8290…9782backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…b5febacked Yes | 34c | 45.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0c…b3a6backed Yes | 35c | 43.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 70c | 40.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4809…a70bbacked Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…b1eabacked No | 71c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…9baebacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…0effbacked No | 71c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 29°F or below on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.