TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x39c9…b108

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
462
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 57 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT34457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 344 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$37.2
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.53
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$39
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$33.99
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+300%+$37.5
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$13
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$32.99
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$26
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$37.34
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$28
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Showing 25 of 344 picks, newest first.
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT9851%50 W · 48 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 98 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.5
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+205.3%+$69.58
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.54
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+227.9%+$69.5
Will "Dai Dai" be the first song played at the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.83
England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$21
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$42.24
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+48.7%+$22.93
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.25
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.09
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$73
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$148
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$134.52
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$41.5
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.58
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.75
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.75
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+89.3%+$136.37
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$68
Showing 25 of 98 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+150%+$36
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$32.99
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.71
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+268.4%+$35.7
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
All 8 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)backed Aguilar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.