Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee557d73f720b36d6e986e12e2041e9b22d24e12216c99e66b2131a41f728c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 847.71$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 695$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 643.95$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 500.87$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 453.95$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 442.72$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 31c | 374.13$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 327.29$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 15c | 290.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 264.86$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 238$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 71c | 209.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 170$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 153.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 150.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 142.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 73c | 140.31$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 136.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 125.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 121.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked No | 77c | 121.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 31c | 113.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 111.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 109.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 100.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 24c | 96.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 33c | 92.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 91.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 91.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed No | 74c | 84.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…835ebacked Yes | 27c | 72.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 30c | 71.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed No | 75c | 66.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked No | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 64.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 30c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 21c | 63.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 32c | 63.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 68c | 63.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 78c | 61.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 25c | 61.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 61.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 59.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 54.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes | 27c | 54.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed No | 77c | 52.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 50.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 35c | 50.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 28c | 48.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 71c | 47.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 43.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 43.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 35c | 43.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 43.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 42.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 42.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 26c | 40.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 40.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 33c | 39.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 38.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 36c | 38.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 38.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 37.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 37.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 43c | 36.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 74c | 36.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 35.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 34c | 34.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 32.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 31.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 29.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 68c | 27.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 69c | 27.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 73c | 26.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 67c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 75c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 21.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 21.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…ab59backed No | 72c | 19.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.