Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd1f1359f46f4afe06e6b83729d111e4eaf56bfaacff43a4f9198dcf6d9fede6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,594$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 19c | 1,278$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed No | 20c | 818.74$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.01 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 74c | 608.94$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.32 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 75c | 600$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 72c | 554.08$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.08 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 494.11$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 19c | 443.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 37c | 420.65$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.53 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 338.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 307.49$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 305.05$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 284.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 52c | 263.91$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 68c | 236.26$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 34c | 226.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 223.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 219.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 39c | 211.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 25c | 206.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 192.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 173.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 38c | 173.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 163.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 157.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 69c | 144.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 141.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 31c | 141.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 130$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 127.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 124$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked No | 25c | 121.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 118.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 76c | 116.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 71c | 113.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 54c | 113.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 111.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 110.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 66c | 110.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 102.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked No | 35c | 101$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 99.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 97.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 91.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 89.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 82.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 35c | 74.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 71.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 65.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…835ebacked Yes | 32c | 63.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 60.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 58.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 28c | 58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 41c | 57.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 66c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 45c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 80c | 50.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 47.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 43c | 47.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 63c | 44.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 44.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 41.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 41.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 64c | 41.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 65c | 38.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 61c | 38.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 37.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 32c | 37.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 37.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes | 52c | 37.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 34c | 36.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 36.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 37c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 51c | 36.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 36.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 32c | 35.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 33c | 34.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 42c | 33.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 30.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 38c | 29.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 28.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 27.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 27.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 27.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.