Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x594e955a4ffdfdd9f51fa520a39d7842fa8007a532dcadfce09b06f8fba53431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 2,415$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,208$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.76 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 16c | 809.12$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.76 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 80c | 751.92$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.92 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 685.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 681.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 660$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 80c | 597.27$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 504.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 499.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 80c | 430.6$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 16c | 404$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 18c | 403.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 7c | 354.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 348.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 293.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 15c | 281.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 14c | 256.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 14c | 238.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 11c | 231.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 204.47$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 21c | 204.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 16c | 189.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 184.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 22c | 170$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 18c | 141.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 140.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 78c | 128.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 21c | 127.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 124.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…e03ebacked Yes | 21c | 122.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 22c | 117.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 17c | 105.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed No | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 101.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 17c | 94.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 23c | 82.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 77.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 19c | 74.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96e…3ddfbacked Yes | 22c | 72.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 68.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 16c | 66.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 76c | 65.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 26c | 64.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…adffbacked Yes | 22c | 63.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 53.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 49.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 80c | 43.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 32.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 31.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 30.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 30.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 27.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 24.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 78c | 23.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 79c | 23.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 18.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 80c | 16.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…cb33backed No | 75c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 80c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.