TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe179…63e9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Weather, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 58 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$32
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$29.5
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.32
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$28.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.62
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.57
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.14
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$33
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$32
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$18.18
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$26.5
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$23.01
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.17
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$68.51
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+64%+$9.61
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+201.5%+$102.6
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$18.28
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56%+$17.95
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$39.01
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$66.09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29.53
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.99
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$10.26
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+26.6%+$16.91
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21.63
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30.03
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$41.71
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+49.3%+$57.06
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.76
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+37%+$11.11
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+217%+$75.93
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$24.4
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.86
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$39.95
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$9.94
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+44.9%+$27.13
All 8 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+40.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+69%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+68%+$81.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.