Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f56db3ee6cc6a629098fd80faf8ae5bb1f2f515680af198a98131a07b5eab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 44c | 4,048$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.98 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 1,089$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.85 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 818.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 53c | 750$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 38c | 733.72$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.19 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 52c | 520.09$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.73 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 495.54$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 416$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 77c | 393.1$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 51c | 387.61$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.45 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 44c | 376.45$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.08 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 366.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 322.83$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 39c | 293.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.78 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 28c | 231.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 59c | 230.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 78c | 230.01$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 52c | 223.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 215.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 205.58$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.49 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 53c | 199.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 187$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 183.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 180.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 173$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 73c | 168.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 167$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 24c | 149.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 145.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 62c | 145.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 144.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 141.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 53c | 137.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 42c | 129.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 126.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 124.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed Yes | 46c | 116.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 51c | 115.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 41c | 111.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 38c | 109.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 108.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 47c | 106.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 36c | 97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 53c | 93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 91.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 67c | 89.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 12c | 83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 43c | 82.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 80.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 70c | 78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 77.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 73.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 39c | 70.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 68.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 65.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12eb…5f50backed Yes | 55c | 61.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 56c | 60.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 65c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 56.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 55.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 52c | 54.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 51.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…33d4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 49.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 46c | 48.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 43c | 47.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 63c | 47.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 36c | 47.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 54c | 46.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 34c | 45.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.