TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes44c4,048$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.9831043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes48c1,089$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.8565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No2c818.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.761,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No53c750$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No38c733.72$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.1969520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No52c520.09$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.7354234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c495.54$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c416$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.85,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes77c393.1$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7217241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes51c387.61$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.4510244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes44c376.45$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.0813838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c366.44$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c322.83$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.455,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes39c293.11$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.782,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed No28c231.62$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5420341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No59c230.17$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1410966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes78c230.01$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.016955.1%38 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No52c223.97$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4618043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No54c215.56$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.061,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes38c205.58$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.4942544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1107347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd9…3c35backed No53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No53c199.85$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9214646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c187$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.694,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No51c183.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.62,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes35c180.7$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6563538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No52c173$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.961,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No73c168.74$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0179040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No51c167$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.594,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No24c149.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No47c145.93$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.743,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No62c145.58$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4733350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c144.67$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No58c141.64$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No52c140$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.858152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes53c137.06$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7417144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes42c129.68$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.684940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes34c126.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5246240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c124.88$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.685,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…fc29backed Yes46c116.85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.652152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No51c115.22$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2565965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes41c111.23$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.431,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No38c109.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.552,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes44c108.54$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.748,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No47c106.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9925358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No57c105$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8512351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4728441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4912934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes36c97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0742643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.069,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes53c93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0261365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No58c91.92$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes67c89.16$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.710030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No12c83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1249543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes43c82.88$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2544757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No50c80.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.392,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No70c78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No46c77.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.362,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes35c73.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6360739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed Yes39c70.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4313751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No50c68.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.124,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6715131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No61c65.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.12,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12eb…5f50backed Yes55c61.8$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.81862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked No56c60.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1219039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No68c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked No65c58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.945148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No55c56.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1299961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No49c56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1621352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes43c56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.922,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No34c55.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.881,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No52c54.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.541,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No46c51.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.546444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6b…33d4backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262055%11 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2748743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2654547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe179…63e9backed No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2645253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.251,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No57c49.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.142,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.781,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed Yes46c48.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.146162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes43c47.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3231836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No63c47.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9851631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes36c47.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8728946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No54c46.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.371,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes34c45.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0722454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.