TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes48c1,205$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.2431043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c658.84$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes2c512.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.311,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes51c437.87$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4715131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c416$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.055,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes38c405.24$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.131,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c343.5$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.754,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes29c310.3$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.321,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c298.16$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c283.9$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.575,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c272.14$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.855,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes39c255.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.641331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes40c249$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No55c231$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.434,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No50c226.53$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.641,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No49c220.59$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.482,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No54c206$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.893,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes56c204.59$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3242544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes38c158$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No52c157.41$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.562,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No76c149.81$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4888650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes37c149.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.464940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes34c149.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No50c140.38$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes43c139.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4813838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No63c136.27$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.961,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes35c134.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5917144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes44c121.66$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.467,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No62c115.22$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c107.24$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.249,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c105.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes56c104.29$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5863538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3579040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No56c92.97$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.362,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x186c…f982backed Yes49c92.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.43060%18 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes57c90.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.772,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c87.44$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.63,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes43c86.02$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.846240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes36c82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2414524.1%35 W · 110 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.853,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No79c78.47$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.522,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No64c74.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3828441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes35c71.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0834853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No58c69.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2869520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No67c67.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1697570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes44c67.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.265543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No47c64.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.111,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No49c61.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4686952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2746444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2360739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c59.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes42c58.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No62c58.28$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.252,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c58.24$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.566,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No68c57.75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No67c57.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0425358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.972,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No62c55.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.861,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No68c55.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6921268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No58c54.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.748743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes42c54.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.977851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5772…b03cbacked No64c54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c51.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.987,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1872125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.517241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c48.69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.814,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes57c47.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9228946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No42c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.061,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No66c46.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x953f…7518backed No51c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.053745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c44.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.015,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes58c42.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No60c42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0a…8f66backed No58c40.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.211747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes38c40.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2440535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.643663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No49c39.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.432,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes41c39.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.351631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes40c37.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No40c37.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.491,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cae…d2aebacked No60c36.82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.821233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes47c36.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177163.4%45 W · 26 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No49c35.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.724,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8542151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b7…8a8dbacked No70c26.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.86862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04bd…8de9backed No70c25.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.511533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x553b…b5bebacked No51c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.321729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ded…6294backed Yes44c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.562630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes55c23.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No50c23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.612,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No58c22.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2543848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No56c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6815666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No67c21.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.241,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f33…da59backed No51c21.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.765658.9%33 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9541…33b5backed No51c20.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.286269.4%43 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.