Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbee3d4be1339083a96ba968c331fb00165c60251991d91e41254cece76990ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,205$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.24 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 658.84$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 512.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 51c | 437.87$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.47 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 416$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 405.24$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.13 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 343.5$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 29c | 310.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 298.16$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 283.9$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 272.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 39c | 255.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 249$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 231$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 226.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 220.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 206$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 56c | 204.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 38c | 158$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 157.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 76c | 149.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 37c | 149.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 34c | 149.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 140.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 43c | 139.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 136.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 35c | 134.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 121.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 115.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 107.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 105.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 104.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 92.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed Yes | 49c | 92.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 90.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 87.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 86.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 36c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 78.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 64c | 74.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 35c | 71.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 58c | 69.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 44c | 67.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 64.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 49c | 61.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 59.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 42c | 58.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 58.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 58.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 57.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 67c | 57.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 55.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 68c | 55.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 58c | 54.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 42c | 54.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5772…b03cbacked No | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 51.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 48.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 57c | 47.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 46.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 44.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 58c | 42.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…8f66backed No | 58c | 40.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 40.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 39.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 41c | 39.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 37.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 40c | 37.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…d2aebacked No | 60c | 36.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 47c | 36.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 35.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…8a8dbacked No | 70c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…8de9backed No | 70c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…6294backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 55c | 23.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 51c | 21.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 51c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.