TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8a0a…8f66

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NHL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.96
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$27
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.33
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+105.7%+$25.7
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$17.21
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.74
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.64
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+203%+$33.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+35%+$14.25
All 17 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$702.04
Raptors vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$223.2
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$196
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$399
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$823Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+142.9%+$1,176.45
76ers vs. Kingsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$117.6
Magic vs. Hornetsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.2
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$249.72
Suns vs. Raptorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.49
Mavericks vs. Grizzliesbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$594Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$306.07
Bulls vs. Warriorsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+214.5%+$579.55
Trail Blazers vs. Rocketsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$320
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+127.3%+$72.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$293.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$162
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.