TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,142
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,961

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,142 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c1,094$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.91,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes46c593.61$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.771,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.54,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c246.36$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.344,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes24c201$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3526344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes48c183.23$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes12c182.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c161.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.664,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c150.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.867,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes34c149.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.321,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No67c145$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.971,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No62c128.73$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.551,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No64c128.4$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.911,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes12c112$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.351,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes29c111.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.975,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No61c107$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.731,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c103.27$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.69,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c102$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.845,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3340352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes11c93.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.024141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c78.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.623,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No56c76.29$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.351,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes46c74.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.275825.9%15 W · 43 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes16c67.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No56c63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6980560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes48c62.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9913839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.424434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5380050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No58c58.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.442,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes37c58.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8913551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c58.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.428,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No60c58.27$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.191,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No54c56.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2271464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No58c56.17$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.521,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No51c56$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4399571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No70c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.53,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes22c53.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x260b…aa9ebacked No60c51.15$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.54922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-66.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb2…8948backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4920…2b87backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.53542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a0a…8f66backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee5a…55fbbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.511331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No76c46.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.082,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa012…2af7backed Yes37c44.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.496061.7%37 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes43c42.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3946549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes49c40.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7166735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No52c39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6564167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc27e…d4fbbacked Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No57c36.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6519662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab7…945ebacked No69c36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.161163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c34.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.13,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x643c…3fc2backed No65c34.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No51c32.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.222,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0211729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No80c31.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3215369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.984,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No64c30.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8242762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7211…6734backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.34744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.820341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes42c29.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.283,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes46c29.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56854.4%37 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes48c26.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7480130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No76c26.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2722265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2630168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.12,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c8…f565backed Yes53c22.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes48c20.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0330652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c20.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.812,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…aee7backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No53c19.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No66c19.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.771,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No62c18.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9816548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.985,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No65c17.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.