TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,394 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c95…8188backed No1c2,044$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.489122%20 W · 71 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+359.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No1c1,000$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.11,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes48c772.37$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.484,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes62c671$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.811,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes44c490.02$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.111,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17614646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No7c311.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.0345162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c284.09$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.64,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes52c282.21$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5126344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes51c273.16$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c242.64$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed No22c228.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3420231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes28c224.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6372837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes62c207$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5619461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes49c205$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.491,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c195.92$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.581,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c195.29$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.35,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfcb…bf61backed No54c183.07$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.962475%18 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes36c160$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.270741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes28c155.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.22,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ccf…cd14backed No30c153.12$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.373844.7%17 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No46c145$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.552,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c144.25$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes47c139.6$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.752,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c135.54$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.799,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed No37c135.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1229941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No54c128.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.761,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No26c128$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.274,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c126$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.365,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No55c120.21$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.151,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes31c112.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.712,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No50c109.77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.773,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c108.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes51c108$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.081,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes50c107$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No52c107$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.361,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No52c94.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2219662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc10b…96d5backed No31c91.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.751266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f5…72bcbacked No35c87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.66922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c85.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No39c85.01$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.027,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes31c79.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.72,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes50c79.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9813274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c79.01$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No40c75.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.641,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No20c73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2914119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5948…2d49backed No21c70.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.95715.8%9 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes72c67.03$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1465749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No29c66.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7248743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c66.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.323,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No53c63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6180560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7211…6734backed Yes47c63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.614744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7442643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes51c59.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.114,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No52c58.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.791,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.525,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d49…52a1backed Yes71c55.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.389,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No76c51.92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.571464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes37c51.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.212,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes51c51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0135137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02d…bcffbacked No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3419345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.54235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2542547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…c62ebacked No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No61c49.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2411257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes63c48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1925038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1880050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed No49c47.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.163633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes53c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9127756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c39…9f30backed Yes45c45.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.492556%14 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb25…68cbbacked No51c44.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.63933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-46.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes76c43.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.182,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No54c42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.461,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No54c41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.043,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c40.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.127,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.91,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8811965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No73c37.82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.257264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No45c37.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4454547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes51c36.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3716148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No43c33.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.962,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes48c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.963,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.412544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No60c25.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3750373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42ce…37aebacked Yes50c25.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c23.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.916,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No80c22.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.642,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes76c20.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No55c20.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.291861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.843663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb07c…6c36backed Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No72c18.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3115369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.