TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9c39…9f30

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: MLB, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 58 out of 100; worst NHL at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT2556%14 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$21.45
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.7
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.03
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$22
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.84
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$10.26
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.42
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.04
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.49
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$34.5
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+43%+$10.18
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$10.25
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$21.8
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$35.5
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$21.49
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.59
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$17.6
All 25 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+138.1%+$133.4
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$135
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$46.5
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$915Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$915
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+38.9%+$75.6
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+81.8%+$130.5
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+40.8%+$232.87
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+53.8%+$54.95
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+56.3%+$79.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+222.6%+$96.6
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+112.8%+$53
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$155.1
Lions vs. Vikingsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$611Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$610.6
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$686Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+37%+$253.8
All 5 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+122%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$636.3
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$455.91
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$102
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$109.41
All 4 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Blue Jackets vs. Sabresbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.8
Rangers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$159
Senators vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$160
All 4 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+153.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wales win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+78.6%+$120.12
Will Latvia win on 2025-10-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$44.8
Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+203%+$335
All 3 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$72.66
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 19, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Sep 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$70
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Union Berlin end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+25%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$12.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$29.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida State vs. Virginiabacked Florida State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.