Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad35a3f0c3cb36dddf35a6b3629acc192d0e14ad3b349fef1da8b9252602b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 9c | 3,675$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.34 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 3,620$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 24c | 1,410$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.21 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,173$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 910$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 837.3$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 719.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 17c | 684.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 37c | 650$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.79 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…c14fbacked Yes | 6c | 636.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 70c | 503.38$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 494.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 415.42$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 45c | 406.57$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 33c | 359.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 357.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 350.84$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…9947backed Yes | 30c | 350.63$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 26c | 350.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 342$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 323.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 68c | 299.06$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.53 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 283.34$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 280.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 34c | 269.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 247.57$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…e2c4backed Yes | 48c | 229.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 25c | 220$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 23c | 212.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 27c | 208.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 193.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 36c | 180.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 169.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 159.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 157.13$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…8620backed Yes | 49c | 154.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 44c | 148.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…ccc1backed No | 68c | 148.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 146.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…8833backed Yes | 34c | 133.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 22c | 118.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 79c | 118.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 24c | 104.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 22c | 96.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 94.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 31c | 92.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 33c | 91.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 63c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 80.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…6efbbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 16c | 77.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 77.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 71c | 75.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 71.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 58c | 69.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 63.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…08efbacked Yes | 35c | 62.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 23c | 58.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 78c | 51.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 47.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 46.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 45.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…955abacked No | 27c | 37.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…04a1backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 65c | 36.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 72c | 33.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…7e0dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 28.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes | 45c | 28.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 67c | 27.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8b…39f2backed Yes | 50c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.